Australia could see its earliest tropical cyclone in 12 years as low 02U intensifies
Australia could see its earliest start of the tropical cyclone season in over a decade, with tropical low 02U being expected to intensify into a Category 2 tropical cyclone as early as Wednesday, November 19, 2025.
Satellite image of Tropical 02U as of 15:50 UTC on November 18, 2025. Credit: JMA/Himawari-9, The Watchers
Australia could potentially see the earliest start to the Australian Tropical Cyclone Season in 12 years. Tropical Low 02U, located over the Timor Sea, could develop into a Category 2 tropical cyclone by late Wednesday or Thursday afternoon, November 19-20.
If it does develop, it will be named Tropical Cyclone Fina. While the season officially starts on November 1, cyclones usually form much later in the season, and while there is an average of 10 cyclones per season, only three or four typically make landfall.
The last time a tropical cyclone developed this early was Cyclone Alessia, which made landfall in the Northern Territory on November 28, 2013.
As of 09:30 ACST (12:00 UTC) on November 18, 02U was located 280 km (174 miles) north of Darwin and 185 km (153 miles) north-northeast of Pirlangimpi. It was moving east-northeast at 8 km/h (5 mph).
It is forecast to continue moving east-northeast, taking it away from the Northern Territory coast until later Thursday. It should then turn to the south and then southwest toward the Northern Territory coast for a potential impact from Friday and Saturday, according to the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM).
“Our tropical cyclone team will be keeping a close eye on this system as it continues to develop, and we will bring you regular updates over the next few days. One way or the other, though, we are expecting showers, rain, and storms to continue for parts of the Top End over the coming days.”
Currently, the heaviest rain is expected closest to the coast, with those top totals most likely about the Tiwi Islands and that north-west corner, including around the Darwin area.
I am an Assistant Editor and Severe Weather & Science Journalist at The Watchers, specializing in real-time severe weather coverage, geophysical event reporting, and research-driven scientific analysis. You can reach me at rishav(at)watchers(.)news.
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