Bavi forecast to intensify into super typhoon near Northern Mariana Islands

At 06:00 UTC on July 2, the center of Bavi was located approximately 1 545 km (960 miles) east of Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, according to JTWC. The cyclone was moving west-northwest at about 24 km/h (15 mph), with 1-minute maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h (60 mph).

JTWC expects Bavi to strengthen slowly during the following 12 hours before entering a longer period of rapid intensification. The latest forecast calls for the system to peak as a super typhoon and pass south of Tinian at approximately 22:00 UTC on July 5, or 08:00 ChST on July 6.

Potential impacts across the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands and Guam will depend on Bavi’s eventual track, size, and intensity.

There is a possibility that Bavi could become the strongest July typhoon to directly pass through the area since the beginning of reliable records.

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) also forecasts continued strengthening. Its forecast analysis issued at 06:45 UTC projects Bavi to intensify into a very strong typhoon, with 10-minute maximum sustained winds of 180 km/h (110 mph) and a forecast central pressure of 925 hPa as it approaches the Mariana Islands.

NWS Guam said the potential for a typhoon passage somewhere in the Marianas was increasing in its advisory issued at 03:37 UTC on July 2. No tropical cyclone watches or warnings were in effect at that time.

References:

¹ Prognostic Reasoning for Tropical Storm 09W (Bavi) Warning No. 006 – JTWC – July 2, 2026

² T2609(Bavi) Forecast analysis – JMA – issued at 06:45 UTC on July 2, 2026

Rishav Kothari

Rishav Kothari is Editor-in-Chief of The Watchers, where he runs the newsroom and covers earthquakes, volcanoes, severe weather and space weather.

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