Bavi forecast to intensify into super typhoon near Northern Mariana Islands
Tropical Storm Bavi is forecast to undergo rapid intensification from late July 2, 2026, and become a super typhoon as it approaches the Northern Mariana Islands. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) forecast issued at 09:00 UTC calls for 1-minute sustained winds of 250 km/h (155 mph) near the system’s peak intensity around July 5.
Satellite image of Tropical Storm Bavi at 06:20 UTC on July 2, 2026. Credit: JMA/Himawari-9, Zoom Earth, The Watchers
At 06:00 UTC on July 2, the center of Bavi was located approximately 1 545 km (960 miles) east of Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, according to JTWC. The cyclone was moving west-northwest at about 24 km/h (15 mph), with 1-minute maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h (60 mph).
JTWC expects Bavi to strengthen slowly during the following 12 hours before entering a longer period of rapid intensification. The latest forecast calls for the system to peak as a super typhoon and pass south of Tinian at approximately 22:00 UTC on July 5, or 08:00 ChST on July 6.
Potential impacts across the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands and Guam will depend on Bavi’s eventual track, size, and intensity.
There is a possibility that Bavi could become the strongest July typhoon to directly pass through the area since the beginning of reliable records.
The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) also forecasts continued strengthening. Its forecast analysis issued at 06:45 UTC projects Bavi to intensify into a very strong typhoon, with 10-minute maximum sustained winds of 180 km/h (110 mph) and a forecast central pressure of 925 hPa as it approaches the Mariana Islands.
NWS Guam said the potential for a typhoon passage somewhere in the Marianas was increasing in its advisory issued at 03:37 UTC on July 2. No tropical cyclone watches or warnings were in effect at that time.
References:
1 Prognostic Reasoning for Tropical Storm 09W (Bavi) Warning No. 006 – JTWC – July 2, 2026
2 T2609(Bavi) Forecast analysis – JMA – issued at 06:45 UTC on July 2, 2026
I am an Assistant Editor and Severe Weather & Science Journalist at The Watchers, specializing in real-time severe weather coverage, geophysical event reporting, and research-driven scientific analysis. You can reach me at rishav(at)watchers(.)news.
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