Tropical Storm and Storm Surge watches expanded from Florida to Louisiana as Gulf depression strengthens
Tropical Depression Two became better organized over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico on July 20, 2026, prompting the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to expand the Tropical Storm Watch from the Florida Panhandle westward to southeastern Louisiana and issue a Storm Surge Watch for parts of the northern Gulf Coast. The depression had maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h (35 mph) at 15:00 UTC and is expected to become a tropical storm later today, followed by gradual strengthening through Tuesday.
Satellite image of Tropical Depression Two at 15:00 UTC on July 19, 2026. Credit: NOAA/GOES-East, Zoom Earth, The Watchers
At 15:00 UTC on July 19, the center of the depression was located about 250 km (155 miles) south of Panama City, Florida. Maximum sustained winds were 45 km/h (30 mph), and the system was moving north-northwest at 4 km/h (2 mph). The estimated minimum central pressure was 1 011 mb.
NHC said tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday, July 20. A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case, in the next 36 to 48 hours.
The depression is forecast to move slowly northwestward or north-northwestward during the next day or two, followed by a turn toward the west. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move near or along the northern Gulf Coast during the next several days.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or Monday. The NHC forecast advisory initialized the system at 45 km/h (30 mph) and brings it to 95 km/h (60 mph) by 72–96 hours, before weakening inland by 120 hours.
The system developed a well-defined low-level circulation after being monitored as Invest 91L. NHC described convection as patchy because of dry air from the northeast, but persistent enough near the center and in bands northeast and southwest of the center to classify the system as a tropical depression.
The storm surge forecast calls for 0.3 to 0.9 m (1 to 3 feet) of inundation above ground level from Indian Pass, Florida, to Chassahowitzka, Florida, if peak surge occurs at high tide. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Rainfall totals of 50 to 100 mm (2 to 4 inches), with locally higher amounts near 200 mm (8 inches), are forecast through Thursday, July 23, along the eastern and central Gulf Coast from western Florida to southern Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. This rainfall may produce flash flooding, especially in urban areas.
Additional watches will likely be required over the next day or two. NHC advised residents in the affected region to monitor products from local National Weather Service forecast offices for storm information specific to their area, including possible inland watches and warnings.
Forecast confidence remains limited by weak steering currents and possible land interaction.
The depression is embedded between ridging over the western Atlantic, ridging over the south-central and southwestern United States, and a trough over the northeastern United States, leaving the system in a slow-motion pattern near the northern Gulf Coast.
Updates
15:30 UTC, July 20
Tropical Depression Two became better organized over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico on July 20, prompting the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to expand the Tropical Storm Watch westward across the Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana coasts and issue a Storm Surge Watch from the Alabama/Florida border to the mouth of the Mississippi River. The Tropical Storm Watch now extends from the Ochlockonee River in Florida westward to the Jefferson/Plaquemines parish border in Louisiana.
At 15:00 UTC, the center of the depression was located about 190 km (120 miles) south of Panama City, Florida, and 345 km (215 miles) southeast of Mobile, Alabama. Maximum sustained winds had increased to 55 km/h (35 mph), and the system was moving erratically northwestward at 6 km/h (3 mph). Its minimum central pressure had fallen to 1 007 mb.
Satellite imagery, coastal Doppler radar and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data indicated that the circulation was becoming better organized. NHC expects the depression to become a tropical storm later today, followed by additional gradual strengthening through Tuesday, July 21.
A slow northwestward motion is forecast through tonight, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest or west. The system is expected to move near or along the northern Gulf Coast during the next several days. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Florida Panhandle late tonight into Tuesday and across the remainder of the watch area from late Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Life-threatening storm surge is possible along parts of the Alabama, Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana coasts. Peak inundation of 0.6 to 1.2 m (2 to 4 feet) above ground level is forecast from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida border. Additional watches or warnings may be issued later today or Tuesday, including for other parts of Louisiana and Texas.
References:
1 Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 1 – NWS/NHC – 15:00 UTC on July 19, 2026
Teo Blašković founded The Watchers in 2011 and edited it until 2026, covering seismic and volcanic activity, extreme weather, space weather and near-Earth objects. Articles on this page are his archive.
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