New tropical cyclone forming in the Bay of Bengal


Just several days after the very destructive Tropical Cyclone "Tauktae" hit India, claiming the lives of more than 100 people, another tropical cyclone is brewing in the Bay of Bengal. The new cyclone is expected to form by May 24 and be named Yaas, the 2nd named storm of the 2021 North Indian Ocean cyclone season. Forecast models indicate the cyclone will reach the Odisha – West Bengal coast on May 26 and make landfall somewhere in the region.

A low pressure area (LPA) is likely to form over the east-central Bay of Bengal and adjoining north Andaman Sea around May 22, intensify into a depression on May 23, and into a cyclonic storm by May 24, RSMC New Delhi said on May 21.

The cyclone is very likely to move NW and reach near Odisha – West Bengal coast on the morning (LT) of May 26.

Image credit: EUMETSAT/Meteosat-8, RAMMB/CIRA, TW. Acquired at 09:30 UTC on May 21, 2021.

While most of the numerical models, including IMD, NCEP, ECMWF, and NCUM, are indicating the formation of LPA around May 22 and intensification up to the Very Severe Cyclonic Storm category, there is still a large divergence concerning landfall location.

The mean model guidance currently indicates that the system would reach the Odisha – West Bengal coasts on the morning of May 26 (LT).

Forecast models

Featured image: GFS/MSLP 10m for May 25, 2021. Credit: TropicalTidbits, GFS


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