According to Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Tropical Depression Tembin (15W) is located approximately 280 nautical miles northeast of Manila, Philippines, has tracked southward at 03 knots (5.5 km/h) over the past six hours. Maximum sustained winds are 50 knots (92 km/h) with gusts up to 65 knots (120 km/h). Maximum significant wave height is 3 meter (10 feet).
Estimated rainfall amount is from 5 - 10 mm per hour (moderate - heavy) within the 400 km diameter of the Tropical Storm. Tropical Storm Tembin (Igme) is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon that will bring light to moderate rains over rest of Northern Luzon ( particularly Benguet, Baguio, Pangasinan, La Union, IIocos region) Central and Southern Luzon especially the western section. Residents living in Northern Luzon especially in low-lying and mountainous areas are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.
Tembin is forecast to remain in a weak steering environment over the next 12 to 24 hours as a near to the southeast of center begins to build northwestward causing the system to start tracking northward. As the system moves northward, the southwestern extent of a deep layered subtropical ridge located eastward of Honshu, Japan will cause a slight northwestward shift.
Steady intensification is expected within a favorable environment as sea surface temperatures remain above 28 Celsius degrees. It is forecast to make landfall in Taiwan for about 96 hours period. Intensity is forecast to decrease as it tracks over Taiwan, emerging as a strong tropical storm. Currently, there is low confidence in the forecast track based on the weak steering environment.
Sources: JTWC, PAGASA