Severe Tropical Cyclone Hayley forecast to make landfall over the Dampier Peninsula, Australia
Severe Tropical Cyclone Hayley is forecast to make landfall over the northern Dampier Peninsula, Western Australia, late on Tuesday, December 30, 2025, as a Category 3 system. The cyclone is expected to bring destructive winds, heavy rainfall, and flash flooding across parts of the west Kimberley coast.
Satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Hayley as of 08:40 UTC on December 29, 2025. Credit: JMA/Himawari-9, Zoom Earth, The Watchers
Severe Tropical Cyclone Hayley is moving southeast over the Indian Ocean toward the west Kimberley coast. As of 20:00 AWST (12:00 UTC) on Monday, December 29, the cyclone was located roughly 335 km (208 miles) west northwest of Cape Leveque and 355 km (221 miles) northwest of Broome.
Maximum sustained winds (averaged over 10 minutes) near the center were 120 km/h (75 mph), with gusts to 165 km/h (105 mph). Hayley is tracking southeast at 11 km/h (7 mph).
According to the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), Hayley is forecast to move east southeast on Tuesday, reaching the northern part of the Dampier Peninsula late in the day. It is expected to remain a severe Category 3 system until landfall, with a possible weakening phase just before impact.
The warning zone extends from north of Broome to east of Cockatoo Island, including the Dampier Peninsula and Derby. A watch zone remains in effect inland east of Derby to Kuri Bay. No cancellations are currently in place.
The cyclone environment remains favorable for further intensification, with sea surface temperatures near 30–31°C (86–87.8 °F), low vertical wind shear, and enhanced upper-level outflow.
Dvorak analysis at 20:00 AWST (12:00 UTC) shows a T4.5 intensity, consistent with sustained 120 km/h (75 mph) winds and a central pressure of 977 hPa. Satellite imagery shows an emerging eye structure, suggesting continued short-term strengthening before interaction with coastal terrain.
Hazardous conditions are expected to develop over the northern Dampier Peninsula from early Tuesday. Very destructive wind gusts up to 200 km/h (125 mph) are possible about Beagle Bay and Cape Leveque from Tuesday evening.
Destructive wind gusts to 150 km/h (93 mph) are likely north of Broome to Cape Leveque from mid Tuesday afternoon. Gales with damaging gusts to 100 km/h (62 mph) may develop from Tuesday morning and extend eastward to Cockatoo Island later in the day, reaching Kuri Bay early Wednesday.
Heavy rainfall capable of producing flash flooding is possible near the cyclone’s track for areas within the warning and watch zones. Tides will be higher than normal along the west Kimberley coast as Hayley approaches.
Forecast models indicate a relatively consistent track toward the northern Dampier Peninsula, with landfall late Tuesday or early Wednesday morning.
A mid-level trough to the southwest is steering the cyclone southeastward. Some guidance suggests a brief intensification period remains possible before increased wind shear and dry air intrusion contribute to weakening near landfall.
Communities from Broome to Derby and along the Dampier Peninsula are urged to finalize preparations and follow official advice from emergency management agencies and the Bureau of Meteorology.
References:
1 Tropical Cyclone Forecast Track Map – BoM – December 29, 2025
2 Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin – BoM – December 29, 2025
3 Tropical Cyclone Advice – BoM – December 29, 2025
I am an Assistant Editor and Severe Weather & Science Journalist at The Watchers, specializing in real-time severe weather coverage, geophysical event reporting, and research-driven scientific analysis. You can reach me at rishav(at)watchers(.)news.
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