Severe Tropical Storm Kalmaegi (Tino) intensifies east of Samar, forecast to reach typhoon strength before landfall
Severe Tropical Storm Kalmaegi (locally named Tino) is rapidly intensifying over the Philippine Sea and is expected to reach typhoon strength prior to landfall in the central Philippines by November 3–4, 2025.
Satellite image of Severe Tropical Storm Kalmaegi as of 17:10 UTC on November 2, 2025. Credit: JMA/Himawari-9, RAMMB/CIRA, The Watchers
Severe Tropical Storm Kalmaegi (locally named Tino) intensified over the Philippine Sea late on November 2, moving west toward Eastern Samar. The system is forecast to reach typhoon strength before landfall over the Philippines late on November 3 or early on November 4.
As of 23:00 PHT (15:00 UTC) on November 2, Kalmaegi’s center was located about 605 km (376 miles) east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar, and 1 226 km (762 miles) east-southeast of Manila.
The cyclone had maximum sustained winds of 100 km/h (62 mph) near the center, gusts of up to 125 km/h (78 mph), a central pressure of 985 hPa, and was moving west at 30 km/h (19 mph).
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), the system is a consolidating tropical cyclone with improving convective structure, low vertical wind shear, and strong outflow aloft over the warm Philippine Sea waters. Rapid intensification is forecast within the next 24 hours, with peak winds reaching around 167 km/h (104 mph).
According to Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), Kalmaegi will continue moving westward across the central Philippines, with landfall expected late on November 3 or early on November 4 over Eastern Samar, Leyte, or Dinagat Islands.
The system is then expected to cross the Visayas region, move near northern Palawan, and emerge over the West Philippine Sea by November 5, maintaining typhoon strength.
PAGASA’s 72-hour forecast shows sustained winds of 150 km/h (93 mph) west-northwest of Palawan before exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility late on November 6.
JTWC forecasts a similar trend, with a westward track across the central Philippines into the South China Sea and continued west-northwest movement toward southern Vietnam or Laos. Peak winds are forecast to reach 167 km/h (104 mph) before landfall, followed by gradual weakening over land and potential re-intensification after re-emerging over water.
PAGASA has raised Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) No. 2 over the southeastern portion of Eastern Samar (Guiuan, Salcedo, Mercedes), Siargao, Bucas Grande, and Dinagat Islands. Gale-force winds of 62–88 km/h (39–55 mph) are expected across these areas within the next 24 hours.
Signal No. 1 is in effect for parts of Sorsogon, Masbate (including Ticao Island), Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Cebu, Bohol, Negros, Iloilo, Capiz, Guimaras, northern Agusan, and northern Surigao provinces. These areas may experience strong winds of 39–61 km/h (24–38 mph) within 36 hours.
A Gale Warning is in effect for the eastern seaboards of Visayas and Mindanao. Seas will be very rough to high, with waves reaching up to 7 m (23 feet) off Eastern Samar, 6 m (19.7 feet) near Siargao and Bucas Grande Islands, and 5.5 m (18 feet) off Northern Samar.
Heavy to intense rainfall of 50–100 mm (2–4 inches) is forecast in areas along the shear line and the cyclone’s rainbands, particularly across Eastern Visayas, Bicol Region, and parts of Central Visayas through November 2 and 3. Some areas, including Cagayan, Quezon, and Negros Occidental, could receive up to 200 mm (7.9 inches) of rainfall by the evening of November 5.
Sea travel will be risky for all types of vessels, particularly small craft. PAGASA has also warned of a high risk of life-threatening and damaging storm surges within the next 48 hours over low-lying coastal communities in Sorsogon, Masbate, Romblon, Oriental and Occidental Mindoro, Palawan, Visayas, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, Agusan del Norte, Misamis Oriental, and Camiguin.
1 Tropical Cyclone Bulletin No. 3 – PAGASA – November 2, 2025 – 23:00 PHT
2 Prognostic Reasoning for Typhoon WP3125 (Kalmaegi) – JTWC – November 2, 2025
I am an Assistant Editor and Severe Weather & Science Journalist at The Watchers, specializing in real-time severe weather coverage, geophysical event reporting, and research-driven scientific analysis. You can reach me at rishav(at)watchers(.)news.
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