Tropical Storm Erin forms west of the Cabo Verde Islands, forecast to reach major hurricane strength by August 16
Tropical Storm Erin formed west of the Cabo Verde Islands at 15:00 UTC on August 11, 2025 as the fifth named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. The system is forecast to reach hurricane strength by August 14 and major hurricane strength by August 16 over the central Atlantic.
Satellite image of Tropical Storm Erin at 16:50 UTC on August 11, 2025. Credit: NOAA/GOES-East, Zoom Earth, The Watchers
At 15:00 UTC on August 11, the center of Tropical Storm Erin was located about 455 km (280 miles) WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands and about 3 700 km (2 305 miles) E of the Northern Leeward Islands.
The system had maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h (45 mph), minimum central pressure of 1 004 hPa and was moving west at 31 km/h (20 mph).
NHC forecasters expect this motion to continue over the next several days, with gradual strengthening.
“The system we have been monitoring that moved across the Cabo Verde Islands over the past 6-12 h (Invest 97L) has maintained a small, but persistent area of deep convection. This activity prompted an earlier TAFB subjective Dvorak fix of T2.5/35 knots suggesting the convection is now sufficiently organized to be classified as a tropical cyclone,” NHC forecaster Papin noted.
Vertical wind shear is expected to remain low at 5–10 knots over the next 72 hours, while sea surface temperatures along the forecast track are marginal at 26–27°C (79–81°F) and mid-level humidity remains limited.
These conditions are likely to restrict intensification in the short term. However, warmer waters and increasing moisture after August 13 should support a faster rate of strengthening.
The NHC forecasts Erin to reach hurricane strength by 03:00 UTC on August 14 and major hurricane strength by 12:00 UTC on August 16, with maximum sustained winds near 185 km/h (115 mph).
Model guidance indicates increasing track uncertainty after August 15, with a possible shift toward a more poleward motion late in the period.
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