Tropical Cyclone Alfred forecast to make landfall as first cyclone to hit southeast Queensland in 50 years
Tropical Cyclone Alfred is forecast to make landfall over southeastern Queensland, Australia, on Thursday or early Friday (LT), March 6–7, 2025, as the first cyclone to make landfall over the region in nearly 50 years.
Satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Alfred at 07:10 UTC on March 3, 2025. Credit: JMA/Himawari-9, RAMMB/CIRA, The Watchers
- Category 2 Tropical Cyclone Alfred is forecast to make landfall between Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast on Thursday or early Friday (LT).
- Gales with damaging wind gusts up to 120 km/h (75 mph) are expected to develop along the coastal fringes and island communities of southeast Queensland and northeastern New South Wales, between Tewantin and Grafton, on Wednesday. These gales may extend further north from Tewantin to Sandy Cape by late Wednesday or early Thursday.
- Severe coastal hazards, including abnormally high tides, hazardous surf, and potentially damaging swells, are expected to persist along the southeast Queensland and northeastern New South Wales coasts. Conditions are forecast to worsen as Alfred nears the southeast Queensland coast on Thursday.
As of 06:00 UTC (17:00 LT) on March 3, Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located about 500 km (311 miles) ENE of Brisbane and 480 km (300 miles) E of Maroochydore.
Alfred is a Category 1 cyclone with sustained winds near the center of 85 km/h (53 mph), gusts to 120 km/h (75 mph), and minimum central pressure of 982 hPa. The system is moving SE at 14 km/h (8 mph).
According to the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), Alfred is forecast to slow down and turn west, toward the southeast Queensland coast on Tuesday and make landfall between Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast late on Thursday, or early Friday, March 6–7.
The system is expected to strengthen to Category 2 on Monday night and fluctuate between Category 1 and Category 2 intensity through Tuesday and Wednesday, March 4–5, before making landfall as a Category 2 cyclone.
Alfred will be the first cyclone to hit southeastern Queensland in 50 years, following Cyclone Wanda, which struck the region in 1974.
Severe coastal hazards, including abnormally high tides, hazardous surf, and potentially damaging swells, are expected to persist along the southeast Queensland and northeastern New South Wales coasts. Conditions are forecast to worsen as Alfred nears the southeast Queensland coast on Thursday.
Alfred is forecast to bring damaging wind gusts of up to 120 km/h (75 mph) to coastal areas of southeast Queensland and northeastern New South Wales, affecting communities between Tewantin and Grafton on Wednesday. Gales may extend further north from Tewantin to Sandy Cape from late Wednesday or early Thursday.
Heavy rainfall is forecast for southeast Queensland and northeastern New South Wales starting Wednesday. Heavy to locally intense rainfall may result in dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding near and south of the cyclone’s center as Alfred nears the coast late on Thursday or early Friday.
Flood Watches have been issued for the affected regions. The BOM has advised residents between Sandy Cape in Queensland and Grafton in New South Wales to prepare for potential cyclone impacts. Sandy Cape to Grafton, including Brisbane, Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, and Byron Bay, are currently included in the watch zone, while Grafton is not.
References:
1 Tropical cyclone advice number 2 – BOM – March 3, 2025
2 Tropical cyclone technical bulletin – BOM – March 3, 2025
I am an Assistant Editor and Severe Weather & Science Journalist at The Watchers, specializing in real-time severe weather coverage, geophysical event reporting, and research-driven scientific analysis. You can reach me at rishav(at)watchers(.)news.
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