Tropical Storm Alvin forecast to form off the coast of Mexico this week
Tropical Storm Alvin, the first named storm of the 2025 eastern Pacific hurricane season, is forecast to form off the southern coast of Mexico this week from a developing low-pressure system designated Invest 90-E. A Gale Warning has been issued for offshore waters from Guerrero to Jalisco due to strengthening winds and rough seas associated with the system.
Invest 90-E (potential Tropical Storm Alvin) satellite image at 00:00 UTC on May 28, 2025. Credit: NOAA/GOES-East, RAMMB/CIRA, The Watchers
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) designated the area south of Mexico as Invest 90-E on May 25. The term “invest” is used for a disturbance that is being monitored for possible tropical cyclone development.
Invest 90-E has a 100% chance of developing into a tropical storm over the next 7 days, according to the NHC.
Upon strengthening, it will be named Tropical Storm Alvin, the first of the 2025 eastern Pacific hurricane season.
The system is expected to develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday, May 28. The NHC said conditions appear favorable for the development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form in the next day or two as it moves west-northwestward at around 16 km/h (10 mph).
A Gale Warning is in effect for offshore waters from Guerrero to Jalisco in association with this developing system.
“Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized near a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico,” NHC forecaster Konarik noted.
“While the system still lacks a well-defined circulation, environmental conditions are favorable for further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form tonight or on Wednesday.”
The storm comes less than two weeks after the official start of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, which began on May 15. The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is June 1.
I am an Assistant Editor and Severe Weather & Science Journalist at The Watchers, specializing in real-time severe weather coverage, geophysical event reporting, and research-driven scientific analysis. You can reach me at rishav(at)watchers(.)news.
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