Tropical Cyclone Alfred stalls ahead of landfall over southeast Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Alfred stalled off the coast of southeast Queensland on Wednesday night into Thursday morning, March 5–6, 2025. The system is now forecast to make landfall between Noosa and Coolangatta late on Friday or early Saturday, March 7–8.
Tropical Cyclone Alfred at 06:30 UTC on March 6, 2025. Credit: JMA/Himawari-9, RAMMB/CIRA, The Watchers
According to the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), Tropical Cyclone Alfred is now forecast to make landfall between Noosa and Coolangatta late Friday night or early Saturday morning.
As of 16:00 AEST (06:00 UTC) on March 6, the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located approximately 225 km (137 miles) east of Brisbane and 210 km (130 miles) east-northeast of the Gold Coast.
Alfred is a Category 2 cyclone, with sustained winds near the center reaching 95 km/h (60 mph), gusts up to 130 km/h (81 mph), and a minimum central pressure of 980 hPa. The system was moving west-northwest at approximately 8 km/h (5 mph).
The system is expected to maintain Category 2 strength until landfall, after which it is forecast to weaken as it interacts with the coast.
Alfred has already impacted the Queensland coast, delivering 100–200 mm (4–8 inches) of rainfall to some areas as of Thursday afternoon.
Gales with damaging wind gusts of up to 120 km/h (75 mph) are expected to develop along the coast from Double Island Point to Grafton. These gusts are forecast to persist through Friday before easing by late Saturday morning.
Destructive wind gusts of up to 155 km/h (95 mph) could develop in coastal and island areas near and south of the cyclone’s center as Alfred’s core approaches land.
A dangerous storm tide could develop along the coastal foreshore in exposed areas between Cape Moreton and Yamba, including the Gold Coast and Byron Bay beaches, ahead of the system’s coastal crossing during high tide.
Tides may rise significantly above the highest tide mark, accompanied by damaging waves and dangerous inundation of low-lying coastal areas.
Minor flooding due to abnormally high tides is expected to persist in low-lying coastal areas between Double Island Point and Grafton from Thursday night to Saturday morning.
Damaging surf could cause significant beach erosion on open beaches between Double Island Point and Grafton, extending further south along the New South Wales coast. Separate Coastal Hazard and Hazardous Surf warnings are in effect for the southeast Queensland and New South Wales coasts.
Rainfall is expected to intensify as the cyclone nears landfall. Heavy rain could develop in southeast Queensland and northeastern New South Wales from Thursday night. Heavy to locally intense rainfall could result in dangerous and life-threatening flooding in coastal regions.
A Tropical Cyclone Warning is in effect from Double Island Point, Queensland, to Grafton, New South Wales. The warning area includes Brisbane, the Gold Coast, the Sunshine Coast, Byron Bay, and Ballina but does not include Grafton.
Separate Severe Weather Warnings and Flood Watches remain in effect for southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales.
References:
1 TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 22 – BOM – March 6, 2025
I am an Assistant Editor and Severe Weather & Science Journalist at The Watchers, specializing in real-time severe weather coverage, geophysical event reporting, and research-driven scientific analysis. You can reach me at rishav(at)watchers(.)news.
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