Tropical Cyclone Alfred intensifies ahead of rare landfall in southeastern Queensland, Australia
Tropical Cyclone Alfred is forecast to make landfall between the Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast, southeast Queensland, late Thursday, March 6, or early Friday, March 7, 2025 (LT). Alfred will be the first cyclone to hit this part of Queensland since Wanda in 1974, bringing destructive winds and the risk of severe flooding.
Satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Alfred at 06:50 UTC on March 4, 2025. Credit: JMA/Himawari-9, RAMMB/CIRA, The Watchers
- Tropical Cyclone Alfred intensified from Monday night into Tuesday, March 3–4, reaching Category 2 strength as it moved toward the southeastern coast of Queensland.
- Alfred is forecast to make landfall over southeastern Queensland on Thursday or early Friday (LT) as a Category 2 cyclone.
- Gales with damaging wind gusts of up to 120 km/h (75 mph) are expected to develop along the southeastern Queensland and northeastern New South Wales coastal and island communities between Double Island Point and Yamba on Wednesday, persisting through Thursday.
- The watch zone currently covers Sandy Cape to Double Island Point in Queensland and Yamba to Grafton, excluding Grafton, in New South Wales.
As of 06:00 UTC (16:00 LT) on Tuesday, March 4, the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located approximately 600 km (373 miles) east of Brisbane and 570 km (354 miles) east of the Gold Coast.
Alfred is a Category 2 cyclone with sustained winds near the center reaching 95 km/h (59 mph), gusts up to 130 km/h (81 mph), and a minimum central pressure of 980 hPa. The system is moving southwest toward the southeast Queensland coast at 20 km/h (12 mph).
According to the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), Alfred is forecast to maintain this intensity as it approaches the southeastern coast of Queensland on Thursday, March 6, and crosses the coast late Thursday or early Friday, March 7.
Alfred will be the first cyclone to impact southeastern Queensland in 50 years, following Cyclone Wanda, which made landfall near Maryborough on January 24, 1974, causing significant damage and leaving 16 people dead.
Although Wanda was a relatively weak cyclone in terms of wind intensity, it brought unprecedented rainfall to southeastern Queensland, particularly Brisbane, leading to one of the most severe flooding events in the region’s history. Over a span of five days, areas around Brisbane received between 500–900 mm (19.7–35.4 inches) of rain, with Mount Glorious recording a staggering 1 318 mm (51.9 inches), causing the Brisbane River to swell and overflow, submerging vast parts of the city and surrounding regions.
Infrastructure such as roads, bridges, and power lines were severely damaged, leading to widespread power outages. In Brisbane alone, approximately 6 700 residential and commercial properties were partially or completely flooded, and another 1 800 in Ipswich.
The disaster prompted the construction of the Wivenhoe Dam, designed both for water supply and flood control, to prevent similar catastrophes in the future.
Alfred will bring severe coastal hazards, including abnormally high tides, hazardous surf, and potentially damaging swells, which are expected to persist along the coasts of southeastern Queensland and northeastern New South Wales.
Conditions are forecast to worsen as Alfred approaches the southeastern Queensland coast on Thursday.
Gales with damaging wind gusts of up to 120 km/h (75 mph) are expected to develop along the southeastern Queensland and northeastern New South Wales coastal and island communities between Double Island Point and Yamba on Wednesday, persisting through Thursday.
Gales may extend further north from Double Island Point to Sandy Cape and south from Yamba to Grafton early Thursday.
Destructive wind gusts of up to 155 km/h (96 mph) may develop over exposed coastal and island locations near and south of the cyclone’s track as Alfred’s center approaches and crosses the coast late Thursday or early Friday.
Dangerous storm tides is likely along the coastal foreshore, particularly in areas near and south of the cyclone’s center, if landfall coincides with high tide on Thursday night or early Friday morning.
Tides are expected to rise significantly above the highest high tide mark, accompanied by damaging waves and dangerous inundation of low-lying coastal areas.
Abnormally high tides may continue to cause minor flooding in low-lying coastal areas between Sandy Cape and Yamba, particularly during high tide on Tuesday night, and could persist until Friday.
Damaging surf may cause erosion on open beaches between Sandy Cape and Yamba, extending further south along the New South Wales coast. A separate Coastal Hazard and Hazardous Surf Warning is in effect for the southeastern Queensland and northeastern New South Wales coasts.
Heavy rainfall is forecast for southeastern Queensland and northeastern New South Wales starting Thursday. Heavy to locally intense rainfall may lead to dangerous and life-threatening flooding near and south of the cyclone’s center as it nears the coast late Thursday.
A separate Severe Weather Warning and Flood Watch are in effect for southeastern Queensland and northeastern New South Wales. The watch zone currently covers Sandy Cape to Double Island Point in Queensland and Yamba to Grafton, excluding Grafton, in New South Wales.
References:
1 Tropical cyclone advice number 6 – BOM – March 4, 2025
2 Tropical cyclone technical bulletin – BOM – March 4, 2025
I am an Assistant Editor and Severe Weather & Science Journalist at The Watchers, specializing in real-time severe weather coverage, geophysical event reporting, and research-driven scientific analysis. You can reach me at rishav(at)watchers(.)news.
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