New tropical disturbance is taking shape in waters of Indian Ocean. According to latest report by Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Tropical Cyclone 21S is located approximately 335 nm south- southwest of Diego Garcia, and is moving south-westward at speed of 11 knots.
Animated infrared satellite imagery depicts a partially-exposed low-level circulation center located east of persistent deep convection. Sustainable winds of 35-40 knot were recorded over the western portion of the low level circulation center, which are wrapping into the center. Upper-level analysis indicates TC 21S is approximately five degrees equatorward of the subtropical ridge axis. Vertical wind shear remains moderate (15-20 knots), causing the deep convection to be sheared to the west. Animated water vapor imagery depicts moderate poleward outflow; however, equatorward outflow is limited due to troughing.
Tc 21s will continue to track west-southwestward through the next 48 hours under the influence of the deep layered subtropical ridge to the south. A gradual decrease in vertical wind shear and fair outflow will allow for intensification. Additionally, a pool of higher ocean heat content located along the forecast track will aid in this intensification.
- Storm-Centered Infrared (Meteosat 7; CIMSS)
- Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared (Meteosat 7; CIMSS)
- Storm-Centered Water Vapor (Meteosat 7; CIMSS)
- Storm-Centered Visible (Meteosat 7; CIMSS)
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