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Hurricane “Olaf” straddling the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur, Mexico

hurricane-olaf-forecast-track-baja-california-september-2021

Hurricane "Olaf" is straddling the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur on September 10, 2021, bringing hurricane-force winds and heavy rainfall.

At 09:00 UTC, its center was located about 70 km (45 miles) SW of La Paz and 205 km (125 miles) SW of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico. The system had maximum sustained winds of 140 km/h (85 mph) and a minimum central pressure of 981 hPa.1

Olaf is moving toward the northwest near 20 km/h (13 mph), and this motion is expected to continue today. 

A turn toward the west at a slower forward speed is forecast on Saturday, September 11 followed by a turn toward the southwest on Sunday. 

On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will move along the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur today and then turn westward away from land by tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 km (25 miles) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 130 km (80 miles).

Olaf is forecast to remain a hurricane while it moves along the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur today, NHC said. It is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by tonight (LT) when it begins to move away from land and then degenerate to a post-tropical cyclone by Saturday night. 

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Baja California Sur, north of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito; south of Todos Santos; and south of Loreto.

"Olaf's proximity to the mountainous terrain of the Baja California peninsula during the next 12 to 18 hours will likely cause additional steady weakening, and the winds are forecast to fall below hurricane force by this evening," NHC forecaster Berg noted.2

"The storm will then move over waters colder than 26 °C (79 °F) degrees Celsius when it turns west of Cabo San Lazaro tonight, which should spur additional weakening."

NHC Key Messages:

Olaf is forecast to move along the southwestern coast of the Baja California peninsula today, with hurricane and tropical storm conditions continuing over the southern portions of Baja California Sur through this evening. These winds should diminish tonight once Olaf weakens and turns westward away from land.

Heavy rains associated with Olaf are expected across portions of southern Baja California Sur today. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

References:

1 BULLETIN – Hurricane Olaf Advisory Number 11 – NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 – 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021

2 Hurricane Olaf Discussion Number 11 – NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 – 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021

Featured image: Hurricane "Olaf" at 00:20 UTC on September 10, 2021. Credit: NOAA/GOES-West, RAMMB/CIRA, TW

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