Moderately strong solar flare reaching M3.9 erupted from Region 2146

moderately-strong-solar-flare-reaching-m3-9-erupted-from-region-2146

After M2.0 at 15:11 UTC today Active Region 2146 erupted with another M-class solar flare. This latest event started at 20:06, peaked at 20:21 as M3.9 solar flare and ended at 20:29 UTC.

As with previous event the majority of plasma cloud appears to be directed away from our planet.

NOAA SWPC forecasters estimate 50% chance for M-class, and 10% chance for X-class solar flare in next two days.

Sunspots

There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. 

Region 2151 developed a small trailer spot, but remained largely unchanged since the M5.9 flare yesterday.  Other regions on the visible disk were either stable or in decay.

Sunspots on August 25, 2014. Image credit: NASA SDO/HMI

2141 – Alpha
2142 – Beta
2143 – Beta
2146 – Beta
2148 – Beta
2149 – Beta-Gamma-Delta
2150 – Alpha
2151 – Alpha

Geospace

The geomagnetic field was quiet in last 24 hours and is expected to remain quiet today and for the first half of August 26.  

Unsettled to active levels are expected after 12:00 UTC on August 26 through early August 27 due to the anticipated arrival of the August 22 CMEs. CME effects are expected to subside midday on August 27.

NOAA SWPC forecasters estimate a 15% to 20% chance of polar geomagetic storms on August 26 – 27 when the CME arrives.

***

Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 580
Issue Time: 2014 Aug 25 1754 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Aug 26:  None (Below G1)   Aug 27:  G1 (Minor)   Aug 28:  None (Below G1)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents – Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft – Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora – Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Featured image: NASA SDO / AIA 131

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