Area of convection developing off coast of Madagascar

An area of convection is developing approximately 425 nm west southwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar. The system is located just poleward of the subtropical ridge axis, near 21.2S 39.8E in waters with favorable sea surface temperatures - 29 to 30 degrees Celsius. The system is under weak to moderate (10 to 20 knots) westerly vertical wind shear.

Area of convection captured by MODIS/Terra satellite on February 15, 2013 (Credit: LANCE/MODIS)

Animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts a well-defined low-level circulation center with formative convective banding over the eastern semi- circle.

Dynamic models indicate steady development over the next 2 to 3 days as the system tracks equatorward further under the subtropical ridge with decreasing vertical wind shear.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1003 mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.