Cyclone Dikeledi makes landfall over Madagascar, Mayotte braces for another cyclone

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi made landfall between the towns of Antsiranana and Vohemar at around 16:30 UTC on Saturday, January 11, in Madagascar’s Antsiranana province.

As of 18:00 UTC, the system was still passing over Madagascar Island, with a minimum central pressure of 990 hPa and estimated maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) of 110 km/h (68 mph) and gusts of up to 155 km/h (96 mph).

The cyclone was moving WSW at 17 km/h and was located roughly 1 085 km (674 miles) from the coast of La Reunion and 460 km (286 miles) off the coast of Mayotte.

The system will re-emerge over the Mozambique Channel, likely as a tropical storm, then shift towards the west-southwest, gradually intensifying in the hours following landfall.

The system is expected to pass about 100 km (62 miles) south of Mayotte at the tropical storm stage before being reclassified as a tropical cyclone on Monday, January 13, during the day. Subsequently, it is forecast to continue intensifying, possibly reaching the intense tropical cyclone stage, turning towards the south and then the southeast at the beginning of next week.

Madagascar’s Antsiranana province is currently experiencing intense conditions due to the system, with destructive winds continuing in the hours following landfall, heavy rain extending to the north of Toamasina province, and dangerous seas. Conditions are expected to gradually improve by late Saturday night into Sunday morning, January 12.

Significant rain and wind deterioration is expected in Mayotte on Sunday, with very heavy rainfall that could generate flash floods, floods, and landslides anticipated throughout the day.

Gusts of 80 – 90 km/h (50- 56 mph), and even locally higher gusts of 100 – 110 km/h (62 – 68 mph), are likely, particularly in the southern part of the island. A dangerous sea state, particularly in the western lagoon, could also accompany this deterioration with a risk of marine submersion.

Heavy rainfall is expected in the Comoros tomorrow, particularly in the highlands.

Over Mozambique, even though the system is trending slightly more towards the center of the channel, it remains a mature system that could approach the coast of Nampula province on Monday, likely bringing disturbed weather. Heavy rainfall, strong winds, and dangerous sea conditions with a risk of marine submersion are possible.

An Orange Cyclonic Alert is in place for Mayotte due to the system through Sunday.

The cyclone comes shortly after Cyclone Chido ravaged the island of Mayotte in mid-December, claiming at least 39 lives and nearly destroying everything on the island. This makes Dikeledi the second cyclone of the season to affect the Mayotte islands.

References:

¹ Strong tropical storm DIKELEDI information bulletin – Meteo France – Issued at 06:19 UTC on Janaury 11, 2024

Rishav Kothari

I am an Assistant Editor and Severe Weather & Science Journalist at The Watchers, specializing in real-time severe weather coverage, geophysical event reporting, and research-driven scientific analysis. You can reach me at rishav(at)watchers(.)news.

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