Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook – August 23/24

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Two powerful tropical storms are moving through north Atlantic waters – TS Isaac and TS Joyce. Isaac is located about 165 miles south of San Juan, Puerto Rico and recently upgraded Joyce is located about 1305 miles east of the Leeward Islands. Another tropical wave, located between west coast of Africa nad Cape Verde Islands, shows shower and thunderstorm activity as it moves westward. This system has a low 10% chance of becoming a new tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Isaac expected to become hurricane tomorrow

Hurricane Warning is in effect for south coast of Dominican Republic from Isla Saona westward to the Haiti-Dominican Republic southern border and Haiti. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra and the U.S. Virgin Islands, north coast of Dominican Republic from the Haiti-Dominican Republic northern border eastward to north of Isla Saona, southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, long cay, Inaguas, Mayaguana, Ragged Islands and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Granma, Holguin, Santiago de Cuba and Guantanamo.

Total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible over Hispaniola. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches over higher terrain are possible over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are possible over the northern Windward Islands and the Leeward Islands.

A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Hispaniola. Storm surge in Puerto Rico as well as the U.S. And British Virgin Islands will gradually subside tonight. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will affect the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during the next couple of days.

According to latest public advisory by US National Hurricane Center at 21:00 UTC, the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was located near latitude 16.0 north and longitude 67.1 west. Isaac is moving toward the west-northwest near 26 km/h ( 16 mph) and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday. The center of Isaac will approach the South Coast of the Dominican Republic tonight, move near or over the South Coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti on Friday and approach southeastern Cuba Friday night.

Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Isaac could become a hurricane as it nears the Dominican Republic and Haiti on Friday.

 

Tropical Storm Joyce has become less organized

Satellite imagery indicates that Joyce has become less organized this afternoon. At 2100 UTC, the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was located near latitude 15.9 north and longitude 42.5 west. Joyce is moving toward the west-northwest near 22km/h (14 mph). Some erratic motion is possible tonight but a general west- northwestward to northwestward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected during the couple of days. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 370 km (230 miles) to the north of the center.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 km/h (40 mph) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

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