Tropical Storm “Francine” forms in Gulf of Mexico, forecast to hit U.S. Gulf Coast as hurricane
Tropical Storm “Francine” formed in the Gulf of Mexico, off the coast of eastern Mexico, at 15:00 UTC on Monday, September 9, 2024. This is the 6th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. The system is expected to intensify into a hurricane as it approaches the Louisiana and Upper Texas coastline on Wednesday, September 11. The current forecast track calls for landfall in Louisiana at hurricane strength on Wednesday.
- This system is forecast to become a hurricane by Wednesday, September 11, or Wednesday night, when it reaches the northwestern Gulf Coast. There is a growing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge inundation in areas along the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines, where a Storm Surge Watch is currently in effect. Residents in these areas are urged to follow local officials’ instructions.
- There is an increasing risk of damaging hurricane-force winds in portions of southern Louisiana beginning on Wednesday, where a Hurricane Watch is now in effect.
- Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall, with the potential for significant flash flooding along the coast of far northeast Mexico, the southernmost part of Texas, the Upper Texas Coast, southern Louisiana, and southern Mississippi through Thursday morning, September 12. Flash and urban flooding risks may also impact parts of the Mid-South from Wednesday through Friday morning, September 13.
As of 15:00 UTC on September 9, the center of Tropical Storm “Francine” was located 395 km (245 miles) southeast of the Mouth of Rio Grande and about 770 km (480 miles) south-southwest of Cameron, Louisiana, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Francine had maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h (50 mph) and was moving north-northwest at 7 km/h (5 mph), with a minimum central pressure of 1 002 hPa.
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the area from High Island, Texas, to the Mississippi/Alabama border, including Vermilion Bay, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Watch is also in place along the Louisiana coast, extending from Cameron to Grand Isle.
Additionally, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for several regions, including from Barra del Tordo to the Mouth of the Rio Grande, from the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield, from east of High Island, Texas, to Cameron, Louisiana, and from west of Grand Isle to the Mouth of the Pearl River. This also includes Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.
Francine is forecasted to continue its slow north-northwestward movement throughout the remainder of today, followed by an acceleration to the northeast starting on Tuesday. According to the forecast track, Francine will remain just offshore of the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico through Tuesday, September 8, and is expected to approach the Louisiana and Upper Texas coastline by Wednesday, September 9.
Gradual intensification is expected over the next day with more significant intensification on Tuesday Night and Wednesday. Francine is expected to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast on Wednesday.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Wednesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible by Wednesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the northern coast of Mexico and extreme southern Texas beginning on Tuesday, September 10, and for the extreme northern Texas and portions of the Louisiana coast on Wednesday.
Francine is expected to bring total rainfall of 100 – 200 mm (4 – 8 inches), with local amounts up to 300 mm (12 inches), from the coast of far northeast Mexico northward along portions of the southern Texas coast, the far upper Texas coast, and across southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning.
This rainfall could lead to the risk of considerable flash and urban flooding.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:
- Cameron, LA to Port Fourchon, LA: 1.5 – 3 m (5 – 10 feet)
- Vermilion Bay: 1.5 – 3 m (5 – 10 feet)
- Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA: 1.2 – 2.1 m (4 – 7 feet)
- High Island, TX to Cameron, LA: 0.9 – 1.5 m (3 – 5 feet)
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Mexico in areas of onshore winds.
Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the Gulf coast of Mexico and are expected to spread northwestward across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastline through midweek. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
References:
1 Tropical Storm Francine Advisory Number 4 – NWS/NHC – 15:00 UTC on September 9, 2024
2 Tropical Storm Francine – NWS/NHC – 15:00 UTC on September 9, 2024
Featured image credit: Tropical Storm “Francine” at 14:40 UTC on September 9, 2024. Credit: NOAA/GOES-East, RAMMB/CIRA, The Watchers
I'm a dedicated researcher, journalist, and editor at The Watchers. With over 20 years of experience in the media industry, I specialize in hard science news, focusing on extreme weather, seismic and volcanic activity, space weather, and astronomy, including near-Earth objects and planetary defense strategies. You can reach me at teo /at/ watchers.news.
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