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Tropical Storm “Pamela” forms, forecast to impact Mexico as a major hurricane

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Tropical Storm "Pamela" formed at 21:00 UTC on October 10, 2021, about 425 km (265 miles) SSW of Manzanillo, Mexico as the 16th named storm of the 2021 Pacific hurricane season.

While there are currently no coastal watches or warnings in effect, Pamela is expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast of west-central mainland Mexico on Wednesday, October 13, and it could bring life-threatening storm surge, flash flooding, and dangerous winds to a portion of that area. Residents in this area should monitor the progress of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, NHC said.1

Pamela is expected to pass near or south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula as a hurricane Tuesday night or early Wednesday and could bring strong winds and heavy rainfall to the extreme southern portion of the peninsula. Watches could be required for portions of this area early Monday.

At 03:00 UTC on October 11, the center of Tropical Storm "Pamela" was located about 845 km (525 miles) SSE of the southern tip of Baja California. It had maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h (50 mph), minimum central pressure of 1 002 hPa, and was moving WNW at 19 km/h (12 mph).

Interests in southern Baja California del Sur, Sinaloa, Durango, and Nayarit should monitor the progress of Pamela.  Watches could be issued for a portion of those states on Monday.

A turn to the northwest and then north is forecast to occur late Monday into Tuesday, followed by a turn to the northeast by Tuesday night and an increase in forward speed.

On the forecast track, Pamela will pass south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula Tuesday night or early Wednesday and approach the coast of west-central mainland Mexico as a major hurricane on Wednesday.

Pamela is expected to generate swells that will affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula and southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico by late Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Tropical Storm "Pamela" at 07:10 UTC on October 11, 2021. Credit: NOAA/GOES-East, RAMMB/CIRA, TW

References:

1 BULLETIN – Tropical Storm Pamela Advisory Number 4 – NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL – EP162021 900 PM MDT Sun Oct 10 2021

Featured image: Tropical Storm "Pamela" at 07:10 UTC on October 11, 2021. Credit: NOAA/GOES-East, RAMMB/CIRA, TW

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