Forecast models are hinting the development of a deep cyclone with the potential of the warm-core system in the western Mediterranean on Monday, November 11, 2019, and another even stronger warm-core cyclone over the Tyrrhenian sea on Tuesday, November 12.
The pattern over the weekend into early next week supports a long-wave through digging far south into southwest Europe and into the Mediterranean. The trough may transform into a large upper low with a deepening core on November 11. This will result in a rather rapidly deepening surface cyclone.
A #medicane or #medistorm could develop sometime tomorrow in the Western Mediterranean, particularly near #Algeria, #Sardinia, or the #Balearics, and could peak with winds as high as 70 km/h. Winds could gust as high as 100 km/h in some regions. #mediterranean #weather pic.twitter.com/RTnbBQBg5o— Mediterranean Cyclone Centre (@Medicane_Centre) November 9, 2019
A cyclone would then go inland into Algeria and Tunisia overnight to November 12, then recurve back north into the Mediterranean in the afternoon.
As supported by the upper-level pattern, it will maintain a very deep cold upper core drifting east across the Mediterranean. A cyclone re-intensifies at the surface and eventually forms a possibly strong warm-core or medicane system again.
As of November 8, the model is very aggressive - linking a couple of surface pressure maps of medicane heading across the Tyrrhenian sea.
The wind field, associated with such a powerful cyclone, would become a damaging severe wind in the region.
Peak wind gusts associated with the second probable medicane over the Tyrrhenian sea would not be ruled out - extremely severe winds more than 150 km/h (93 mph).
Advisories will begin on #MedicaneTrudy at 18:00 UTC, a hybrid cyclone in the Western Mediterranean. #medicane #sardinia #algeria #balearicislands #weather #corsica #spain #tunisia #france #italy pic.twitter.com/Qn47NZxfhr— Mediterranean Cyclone Centre (@Medicane_Centre) November 10, 2019
#Medivest97M or #97M has a high chance of transitioning from an extratropical cyclone to a hybrid, warm-core cyclone sometime today, and could develop into #MedicaneTrudy as it heads south toward #Algeria. #balearicislands #sardinia #tunisia #medicane #weather #mediterranean pic.twitter.com/DKO7ABcgh6— Mediterranean Cyclone Centre (@Medicane_Centre) November 10, 2019
Featured image credit: @medicane_centre/Twitter