Forecast models hint development of two medicanes by November 12

forecast-models-hint-development-of-two-medicanes-by-november-12

Forecast models are hinting the development of a deep cyclone with the potential of the warm-core system in the western Mediterranean on Monday, November 11, 2019, and another even stronger warm-core cyclone over the Tyrrhenian sea on Tuesday, November 12.

The pattern over the weekend into early next week supports a long-wave through digging far south into southwest Europe and into the Mediterranean. The trough may transform into a large upper low with a deepening core on November 11. This will result in a rather rapidly deepening surface cyclone.

A cyclone would then go inland into Algeria and Tunisia overnight to November 12, then recurve back north into the Mediterranean in the afternoon.

As supported by the upper-level pattern, it will maintain a very deep cold upper core drifting east across the Mediterranean. A cyclone re-intensifies at the surface and eventually forms a possibly strong warm-core or medicane system again.

As of November 8, the model is very aggressive – linking a couple of surface pressure maps of medicane heading across the Tyrrhenian sea.

The wind field, associated with such a powerful cyclone, would become a damaging severe wind in the region.

Peak wind gusts associated with the second probable medicane over the Tyrrhenian sea would not be ruled out – extremely severe winds more than 150 km/h (93 mph).

Featured image credit: @medicane_centre/Twitter

If you value what we do here, create your ad-free account and support our journalism.

Share:


Your support makes a difference

Dear valued reader,

We hope that our website has been a valuable resource for you.

The reality is that it takes a lot of time, effort, and resources to maintain and grow this website. We rely on the support of readers like you to keep providing high-quality content.

If you have found our website to be helpful, please consider making a contribution to help us continue to bring you the information you need. Your support means the world to us and helps us to keep doing what we love.

Support us by choosing your support level – Silver, Gold or Platinum. Other support options include Patreon pledges and sending us a one-off payment using PayPal.

Thank you for your consideration. Your support is greatly appreciated.

Sincerely,
Teo Blašković

$5 /month

  • Ad-free account
  • Clean user interface and fast browsing
  • Direct communication with us via chat and email
  • Suggest new features, content and applications
  • Early access to new apps and features

$50 /year

$10 /month

  • Ad-free account
  • Clean user interface and fast browsing
  • Direct communication with us via chat and email
  • Suggest new features, content and applications
  • Early access to new apps and features

$100 /year

$25 /month

  • Ad-free account
  • Clean user interface and fast browsing
  • Direct communication with us via chat and email
  • Suggest new features, content and applications
  • Early access to new apps and features

$200 /year

You can also support us on Patreon

support us on patreon

or by sending us a one-off payment using PayPal:


Commenting rules and guidelines

We value the thoughts and opinions of our readers and welcome healthy discussions on our website. In order to maintain a respectful and positive community, we ask that all commenters follow these rules:

  • Treat others with kindness and respect.
  • Stay on topic and contribute to the conversation in a meaningful way.
  • Do not use abusive or hateful language.
  • Do not spam or promote unrelated products or services.
  • Do not post any personal information or content that is illegal, obscene, or otherwise inappropriate.

We reserve the right to remove any comments that violate these rules. By commenting on our website, you agree to abide by these guidelines. Thank you for helping to create a positive and welcoming environment for all.

Leave a reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *