Forecast models hint development of two medicanes by November 12

Forecast models are hinting the development of a deep cyclone with the potential of the warm-core system in the western Mediterranean on Monday, November 11, 2019, and another even stronger warm-core cyclone over the Tyrrhenian sea on Tuesday, November 12.

The pattern over the weekend into early next week supports a long-wave through digging far south into southwest Europe and into the Mediterranean. The trough may transform into a large upper low with a deepening core on November 11. This will result in a rather rapidly deepening surface cyclone.

A cyclone would then go inland into Algeria and Tunisia overnight to November 12, then recurve back north into the Mediterranean in the afternoon.

As supported by the upper-level pattern, it will maintain a very deep cold upper core drifting east across the Mediterranean. A cyclone re-intensifies at the surface and eventually forms a possibly strong warm-core or medicane system again.

As of November 8, the model is very aggressive – linking a couple of surface pressure maps of medicane heading across the Tyrrhenian sea.

The wind field, associated with such a powerful cyclone, would become a damaging severe wind in the region.

Peak wind gusts associated with the second probable medicane over the Tyrrhenian sea would not be ruled out – extremely severe winds more than 150 km/h (93 mph).

Julie Celestial

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