Tropical Storm Gabrielle forecast to become a hurricane by Sunday
Tropical Storm Gabrielle is expected to become the second hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season by Sunday, September 21, 2025. While no landfall is forecast for the storm, Gabrielle will move east of Bermuda, possibly causing rip currents and other marine hazards.
Satellite image of Tropical Storm Gabrielle as of 20:50 UTC on September 19, 2025. Credit: GOES-19, RAMMB/CIRA, The Watchers
At 09:00 UTC (05:00 AST) on Saturday, September 20, Gabrielle’s center was located about 1 105 km (685 miles) southeast of Bermuda. The system had maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h (50 mph), a minimum central pressure of 1 004 hPa, and was moving northwest at 20 km/h (13 mph).
Tropical-storm-force winds are extending up to 240 km (150 miles) from the center. Convection remains strong, though the low-level center is displaced by westerly shear.
Gabrielle is expected to intensify into a hurricane by Sunday, September 21, while moving north-northwest. Although the center is forecast to remain east of Bermuda, hazardous swells and rip currents are already affecting the island.
The system is forecast to turn north-northwest on Sunday and then northward on Monday, September 22. It is expected to reach hurricane strength by Sunday, with steady intensification into early next week.
Peak sustained winds are projected to reach 165 km/h (105 mph) by Tuesday, September 23, corresponding to a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson scale.
The forecast track keeps the center well east of Bermuda Sunday night into Monday. A southward adjustment is possible in the extended outlook, but current guidance maintains the storm clear of direct impact on the island.
Swells generated by Gabrielle are already reaching Bermuda and will increase through the weekend. These swells are expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents along the island’s coastlines.
The probability of tropical-storm-force winds on Bermuda remains near 20 percent, and no coastal watches or warnings are in effect as of 05:00 AST on Saturday.
References:
1 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 13 – NOAA/NHC – September 20, 2025.
2 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 13 – NOAA/NHC – September 20, 2025.
Rishav Kothari is Editor-in-Chief of The Watchers, where he runs the newsroom and covers earthquakes, volcanoes, severe weather and space weather.
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