Super Typhoon Ragasa moving toward Philippines, China and Vietnam
Typhoon Ragasa, known locally as Nando, intensified into a super typhoon 00:00 UTC (08:00 LT) on September 21, 2025, east of Cagayan, Philippines. By 09:00 UTC, its center was located 450 km (280 miles) east of Aparri with sustained winds of 185 km/h (115 mph) and gusts up to 230 km/h (145 mph). The system is moving west-northwest toward Batanes and the Babuyan Islands, bringing life-threatening storm surges exceeding 3 m (10 feet), destructive winds, and very rough seas.
Satellite image of Super Typhoon Ragasa at 08:30 UTC on September 21, 2025. Credit: JMA/Himawari-9, RAMMB/CIRA, The Watchers
Forecast timeline:
- The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) forecasts Ragasa will reach its maximum strength of about 270 km/h (165 mph) while tracking north of Luzon on September 22. This represents the highest expected wind intensity during the system’s lifetime.
- On September 22 (afternoon to evening, local time), Ragasa is expected to pass very close to or make landfall over the Batanes or Babuyan Islands. At this stage, the system will be near peak intensity, bringing destructive winds capable of heavy structural damage, life-threatening storm surges exceeding 3 m (10 feet), and extremely hazardous seas with waves up to 14 m (46 feet).
- Ragasa is forecast to make landfall over the Leizhou Peninsula, southeastern China, on September 24–25 as a weakening but still significant typhoon. Hazards include damaging winds, coastal inundation, and heavy rainfall across Guangdong and Guangxi provinces, with risks of urban flooding in coastal cities including Zhanjiang.
- After crossing the South China Sea, Ragasa is forecast to make landfall along the northern coast of Vietnam, near the Gulf of Tonkin, on September 25. By this time, the typhoon is expected to have weakened significantly, with maximum sustained winds near 120 km/h (75 mph), equivalent to a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson scale. Despite reduced wind strength compared to its Philippine peak, Ragasa will still pose major hazards, including damaging winds, coastal inundation, and widespread flooding rains that will spread inland into northern Vietnam and later Laos.
Typhoon Ragasa, known in the Philippines as Nando, intensified into a super typhoon at 00:00 UTC (08:00 PHT) on September 21, approximately 535 km (333 miles) east of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan, according to Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).
At 07:00 UTC (17:00 local time) on September 21, Ragasa’s center was about 450 km (280 miles) east of Tuguegarao City, moving westward at 15 km/h (9 mph) with maximum 10-minute sustained winds of 185 km/h (115 mph) near the center and gusts up to 230 km/h (143 mph), according to PAGASA.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) reported 1-minute sustained winds of 260 km/h (160 mph) with gusts to 315 km/h (195 mph) and a minimum central pressure of about 933 hPa at 09:00 UTC.
JTWC forecasters noted highly favorable conditions, with sea surface temperatures of 29–30°C (84-86°F), low wind shear, and strong outflow supporting further intensification to 270 km/h (165 mph).
PAGASA warned of life-threatening storm surge with peak heights exceeding 3 m (10 feet) over low-lying and exposed coastal areas of Batanes, Cagayan (including Babuyan Islands), Ilocos Norte, and Ilocos Sur within the next 48 hours.
Extremely rough seas with wave heights reaching 14 m (46 feet) are expected over the seaboards of Batanes and Babuyan Islands. Conditions are hazardous for all types of marine and fishery operations.
Destructive winds are expected in areas placed under higher Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals, with PAGASA noting that the highest possible signal level is No. 5.
Heavy rainfall associated with the typhoon and the enhanced southwest monsoon is forecast to bring flooding and landslides across northern and central Luzon.
Rainfall totals of 100–200 mm (4–8 inches) are expected in Cagayan, while Batanes, Apayao, Zambales, and Bataan may receive 50–100 mm (2–4 inches) on September 21.
Forecast track projections show Ragasa crossing close to or over Batanes and Babuyan Islands between the afternoon and evening of September 22, before exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility by early September 23.
JTWC forecasts Ragasa to reach a peak 1-minute sustained winds of about 270 km/h (165 mph), north of Luzon on September 22. The typhoon will then weaken gradually across the northern South China Sea, with intensity dropping to 250 km/h (155 mph) by September 23 and 215 km/h (135 mph) by September 24.
Ragasa could bring winds of up to 210 km/h (130 mph) to Hong Kong by September 24, according to the Hong Kong Observatory. Authorities in Macau urged residents to stockpile food and other resources ahead of the storm’s expected landfall in the middle of the coming week.
Ragasa is expected to weaken further to 120 km/h (75 mph) by September 25 as it approaches Vietnam, making landfall near the Gulf of Tonkin as a Category 1 typhoon. By September 26, the system is forecast to weaken to 55 km/h (35 mph) and dissipate inland over Laos.
“The weather will deteriorate later on Tuesday,” said the Hong Kong Observatory. “Gale to storm force winds will prevail on Wednesday, and winds may reach hurricane force offshore and on high ground.”
According to the Observatory’s storm tracker, maximum wind speeds could reach 210 km/h (130 mph) at 02:00 LT on Wednesday, exceeding the 185 km/h (115 mph) recorded when Super Typhoon Hato hit the city in 2017.
Super Typhoon Mangkhut, one of the most destructive storms to hit the city, brought gusts exceeding 250 km/h (155 mph) when it made landfall in 2018.
Authorities in Macau on Sunday, September 21, urged all residents and businesses to make emergency preparations ahead of the storm’s expected landfall in the middle of the week, including stocking up on emergency supplies and securing doors and windows.
“Prepare appropriate and necessary emergency supplies in advance, including dry food, drinking water, medicine, first aid kits, flashlights, spare batteries, candles, lighters, and power banks, to prepare for possible emergencies,” the government said.
Macau’s judiciary police said in a statement that it had dispatched an evacuation team to conduct inspections and distribute leaflets to residents and businesses in low-lying areas that could be affected by storm surges.
The Hong Kong Observatory earlier noted that Ragasa’s accompanying storm surges might raise sea levels over coastal areas to levels comparable with those during Hato in 2017 and Mangkhut in 2018.
The severe storm surge induced by Mangkhut raised the sea level in Hong Kong by more than 2 m (6.6 feet), the forecaster said.
Several carriers, including Cathay Pacific Airways, Hong Kong Airlines, and Greater Bay Airlines, have offered free rebooking on tickets for flights between Tuesday and Thursday.
For September 21, Hong Kong is forecast to experience rain and thunderstorms under the influence of Mitag, which triggered a No. 3 typhoon warning earlier in the week, as it made landfall on September 19.
Many regions of Hong Kong saw rainfall exceeding 30 mm (1.2 inches) in the hour before noon on September 21, with some registering over 40 mm (1.6 inches).
Red flags were raised at several beaches across the city, including those along the south of Hong Kong Island, Sai Kung, and the outlying islands. A red flag means beachgoers are advised against entering the water.
A super typhoon is an exceptionally strong tropical cyclone in the Northwest Pacific region. The United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) defines a super typhoon as having maximum sustained winds of at least 240 km/h (150 mph) over a one-minute averaging period, roughly equivalent to a high-end Category 4 or Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Other agencies have slightly different threshold for the classification. PAGASA, for example, classifies Super Typhoons as storms with maximum saustained winds of over 185 km/h agree.
However, all agencies agree that super typhoons are among the most destructive storm systems, bringing extreme winds, storm surge, torrential rainfall, and often widespread damage.
Since 1947, there have been over 300 super typhoons recorded in the Northwest Pacific basin, as classified by the JTWC. For example, in 2024 there were multiple super typhoons, like Man-yi (Pepito) and Kong-rey (Leon), that caused major impacts across the Philippines and neighbouring countries.
The Philippines typically sees about 20 tropical cyclones form or enter its area annually, of which about 8-9 cross the country, but only some of those intensify into super typhoons.
In 2024, the Philippines was hit by several very strong storms, including Super Typhoon Man-Yi (locally named Pepito), which made landfall with sustained winds of about 195 km/h (120 mph). During the same season, six typhoons struck the country in just 3 weeks, three of which were super typhoons, making it an extremely rare occurrence.
Read more:
References:
1 Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #15: Super Typhoon “Nando” (Ragasa)’ – PAGASA – September 21, 2025
2 Typhoon 24W (RAGASA) Warning NR 011 – JTWC – September 21, 2025
I am an Assistant Editor and Severe Weather & Science Journalist at The Watchers, specializing in real-time severe weather coverage, geophysical event reporting, and research-driven scientific analysis. You can reach me at rishav(at)watchers(.)news.
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