Typhoon “Shanshan” slows down as it nears Japan, landfall expected in Kyushu on August 29
Image credit: JTWC
Typhoon “Shanshan” has slowed down as it neared Japan on August 26, 2024. The system is projected to approach western Japan and the Amami region from Tuesday through Wednesday, August 27 and 28, bringing strong winds and heavy rain, particularly along the Pacific coast. JTWC forecast places the landfall point south of Sasebo at approximately 15:00 UTC on August 29 with maximum sustained winds of around 150 km/h (92 mph).
The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), has warned of violent winds, high waves, landslides, flooding, and swollen rivers, urging residents in affected areas to take precautions.
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), the center of Typhoon “Shanshan” was located about 430 km (267 miles) ENE of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, Japan at 15:00 UTC on August 26. The system had maximum sustained winds of 167 km/h (104 mph) and was moving WNW at 15 km/h (9 mph) over the past 6 hours. Significant wave height is reaching 10 m (33 feet).
JTWC forecasters expect the system to turn poleward over the next 48 hours, then round the axis of the steering ridge and turn eastward toward Kyushu thereafter. The current JTWC forecast places the landfall point south of Sasebo, Nagasaki Prefecture just after 72 hours — approximately 15:00 UTC on August 29.
“During the extended forecast period, the system will move inland and slowly accelerate poleward and eastward ahead of a developing mid-latitude trough. Extratropical transition is expected to begin by 15:00 UTC on August 31 as the system interacts with the mid-latitude trough, although it remains too early to tell whether the transition process will continue or if the system will dissipate over land beyond 120 hours, as a fair proportion of the available deterministic and ensemble model guidance indicates.”
The current intensification trend is expected to continue for the next 24 hours, supported by passage over very warm water and favorable equatorward outflow.
However, intensification will be limited as vertical wind shear increases due to persistent northeasterly flow aloft and as upper-level outflow decreases, partially due to the filling of a tropical upper tropospheric trough cell to the south that is currently supporting the system.
The passage over land will lead to steady weakening after 72 hours, JTWC said.
According to JMA, the Tokai region could potentially receive 180 mm (7.1 inches) of rain by Tuesday evening. Southern Kyushu and Kinki may see 120 mm (4.7 inches), and Amami and Shikoku could get 100 mm (3.9 inches). Rainfall is likely to increase through Wednesday and Thursday, with southern Kyushu potentially receiving up to 500 mm (19.7 inches).
“Due to the slow nature of the storm system, we are gonna be looking at rain totals adding up to just staggering amounts,” said meteorologist Robert Speta of the WestPacWx. “In parts of Kyushu, we could see… 300+ mm (12+ inches) of rain. So naturally, a big rainmaker, a potentially serious floodmaker.”
Shanshan is expected to strengthen as it moves westward before turning north, posing a significant threat to the Amami region in Kagoshima Prefecture, JMA forecasters said.
On Tuesday, August 27, Amami is forecast to experience maximum wind speeds of 108 km/h (67 mph) and gusts up to 162 km/h (101 mph). Southern Kyushu may see winds of 72 km/h (45 mph) and gusts up to 108 km/h (67 mph).
Stronger winds are anticipated on Wednesday, August 28, with southern Kyushu and Amami potentially facing maximum wind speeds of 162 km/h (101 mph) and gusts of 216 km/h (134 mph). Northern Kyushu could experience winds up to 108 km/h (67 mph) with gusts of 162 km/h (101 mph), while Shikoku may see winds of 82 km/h (51 mph) and gusts of 126 km/h (78 mph).
The Kinki region is forecast to have winds up to 64 km/h (40 mph) and gusts reaching 108 km/h (67 mph).
References:
1 Typhoon 11W (Shanshan) – JTWC – Warning #21 Issued at 26/1500Z
2 Typhoon Shanshan forecast to approach western Japan, Amami from Tuesday – NHK – August 26, 2024
I'm a dedicated researcher, journalist, and editor at The Watchers. With over 20 years of experience in the media industry, I specialize in hard science news, focusing on extreme weather, seismic and volcanic activity, space weather, and astronomy, including near-Earth objects and planetary defense strategies. You can reach me at teo /at/ watchers.news.
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