Axial volcano shows signs of activity after years of dormancy

Axial Seamount, a submarine volcano located on the Juan de Fuca Ridge — about 482 km (300 miles) west of Astoria, Oregon, has recently shown signals of resumed volcanic activity.

• Researchers have been tracking the volcano’s cyclical inflation and deflation since its last eruption in 2015.
• The rate of inflation at Axial has almost doubled in the last 6 months and seismicity is picking up.
• Recent rises in inflation and seismic activity signal the possibility of a future eruption, prompting forecasts and an ongoing study funded by the National Science Foundation.
• Known eruptions at this volcano took place in 1998, 2011 and 2015.

Located about 482 km (300 miles) west of Astoria, Oregon, the submarine Axial Seamount is the most active volcano in the Pacific Northwest region. For many years, researchers including Bill Chadwick from Oregon State University and William Wilcock from the University of Washington have been keenly observing the activity of the volcano.

Axial Seamount has been undergoing a cyclical process of inflation and deflation since its last eruption in 2015, which has been closely monitored using autonomous and cabled Bottom Pressure Recorders (BPRs). By March of 2024, the seamount was 90 – 95% reinflated to its pre-eruption levels, according to Chadwick, and was getting close to a crucial threshold that might cause another eruption.

The inflation rate which originally surged post the 2015 eruption has progressively decreased until recently. However, from October 2023  there has been a noticeable increase in the pace of elevation, which is now estimated at 5 – 6 cm (2 – 2.5 inches) per year—still lower than historical averages but indicating a potential awakening.

The rise in inflation is accompanied by an increase in seismic activity with many earthquakes rocking the region recently.

“I’m hoping that the rate of inflation will continue to increase, but it’s too early to tell.  Anything could happen,” said Chadwick.  “I’m more hopeful than I was a year ago that the next eruption may not be too far off but only time will tell!’

Chadwick remains optimistic about the volcano’s future endeavors, predicting an eruption window between 2025 – 26 based on current tendencies. He admits the unpredictability of volcanic activity, emphasizing the importance of consistent monitoring and research to improve eruption forecasting.

Institutions such as the National Science Foundation (NSF) support Axial Seamount’s research efforts, which strive towards gathering new knowledge about volcanic processes which will in turn help in forecasting eruptions. The NSF Ocean Observatories Initiative (OOI)  is crucial in this effort, supplying real-time data through its cabled observatory network.

Axial Seamount’s shield volcano structure, similar to those found in Hawaii, contributes to its distinct eruptive pattern. This behavior, albeit less dramatic than that of some terrestrial volcanoes, offers scientists important information about underwater volcanic processes and their possible hazards.

“We’re trying to understand how it evolves over time. How the magma moves leading up to an eruption and during an eruption. What happens right after an eruption? These are things that are not really that well understood about volcanoes in general,” Chadwick noted.

Though this volcano has no related risks of tsunami or destruction of residential areas, this research ensures improving scientific understanding of volcanic build-up and eruptions, which will help to reduce hazards and improve public safety when volcanic risks actually arise.

While recent activity at Axial Seamount suggests the possibility of an eruption in the coming years, more research and monitoring are required to precisely forecast volcanic occurrences and prevent associated dangers.

References:

¹ Blog to chronicle eruption forecasts at Axial Seamount – NOAA/PMEL – Accessed July 10, 2024

Harsha Borah

Harsha Borah is an experienced content writer with a proven track record in the industry. Harsha has worked with LitSpark Solutions and Whateveryourdose, honing skills in creating engaging content across various platforms. A gold medalist in a state-level writing competition organized by Assam Tourism, Harsha’s travelogue on Tezpur was widely appreciated. Harsha’s article, "The Dark Tale of the Only Judge in India to Be Hanged," ranks second on Google and has garnered over 11 000 views and 8 900 reads on Medium. Outside of writing, Harsha enjoys reading books and solving jigsaw puzzles.

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