Grindavík’s eruption risk increases with significant magma influx, Iceland

Updated findings as of February 1, 2024, show a heightened eruption risk near Grindavík, with about 6.5 million cubic meters (229 million cubic feet) of magma flowing into the Svartsengi chamber.

Recent GPS data analysis reveals a significant influx of magma into the Svartsengi chamber, indicating a heightened probability of eruption similar to previous incidents.

Scientists from the Icelandic Meteorological Office and the University of Iceland, after reviewing the data on February 1, estimate approximately 6.5 million cubic meters (229 million cubic feet) have entered the chamber, potentially leading to an eruption within the next two weeks, if not days. “This means that the probability of magma flow and eruption has increased,” the Icelandic Met Office said.

Magma flows are always accompanied by increased micro-seismic activity, and it is most likely that there will be a warning for at least one hour on the eve of a volcanic eruption, which will most likely find its way to the magma tunnel that formed last November 10.

Seismic activity over the past week mirrors the previous period, with nearly 200 earthquakes detected, primarily minor tremors below magnitude 1.0. The largest recorded quake was a magnitude 1.8, nearly 1 km (0.62 miles) south of Hagafell.

The Norwegian Meteorological Agency’s updated hazard map highlights increased risk levels, notably area 3 (Sýlingarfell – Hagafell) now in red (high risk) and areas 2 and 6 in orange (considerable risk).

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¹ Auknar líkur á eldgosi – IMO – February 1, 2024

Featured image credit: IMO