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Tropical Cyclone “Tej” to rapidly intensify as it heads toward the Yemen – Oman border region

tropical cyclone tej 1015z october 21 2023 meteosat-9 f

Tropical Cyclone “Tej” is heading toward the Yemen – Oman border region, where landfall is expected late October 24 or early October 25, 2023. Tej is the 3rd named storm of the 2023 North Indian Ocean cyclone season.

The center of Tropical Cyclone “Tej” was located about 550 km (342 miles) ESE of Hadibu in Socotra, Yemen, 890 km (552 miles) SSE of Salalah in Oman, 1 117 km (694 miles) ESE of Mukalla in Yemen, and 1 376 km (855 miles) S of Al Ashkharah in Oman, as of 09:00 UTC on October 21, 2023.

According to the JTWC, it had maximum sustained winds of 100 km/h (60 mph) and was moving WNW at 17 km/h (10 mph).

According to the JTWC, Tej will rapidly intensify to a peak of 205 km/h (125 mph) by 18:00 UTC on October 22. Afterward, significant dry air intrusion off the Arabian Peninsula will rapidly weaken the system as it approaches the eastern coast of Yemen.

tropical cyclone tej jtwc fcst track 09z october 21 2023
tropical cyclone tej 1015z october 21 2023 meteosat-9 bg
Tropical Cyclone “Tej” at 10:15 UTC on October 21, 2023. Credit: EUMETSAT/Meteosat-9, RAMMB/CIRA, The Watchers

According to the unofficial forecast made by the Indo-Pacific Tropical Cyclone Warning Center, Tej has already intensified into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm at 09:00 UTC — with maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h (75 mph) and minimum central pressure of 986 hPa.

Strong winds and heavy rainfall are expected in Socotra, Yemen on October 22 as the system moves east of the island.

Interests on Socotra Island and mainland Yemen near the border with Oman as well as those in far southwestern Oman should monitor this system. Tropical cyclone watches may need to be issued soon.

severe cyclonic storm tej october 21 2023
tropical cyclone tej imd fcst track with cone 06z october 21 2023
tropical cyclone tej imd fcst track 06z october 21 2023

References:

1 Tropical Cyclone 05A (Five) Warning #04 – JTWC – Issued at 09:00 UTC on October 21, 2023

2 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Tej Advisory 4 – IPTCWC – Issued at 09:00 UTC on October 21, 2023

Featured image: Tropical Cyclone “Tej” at 10:15 UTC on October 21, 2023. Credit: EUMETSAT/Meteosat-9, RAMMB/CIRA, The Watchers

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