Major multi-day rainfall event forecast across Middle East from March 25-31
A large-scale storm system is forecast to bring heavy to extremely heavy rainfall across parts of the Middle East, including Iraq, Iran, and the Gulf states, between March 25 and 31, 2026, raising flood risk in urban and desert regions. Authorities in the United Arab Emirates have issued warnings for unstable conditions with rain, strong winds, and reduced visibility, while flooding has already caused fatalities in Oman. Parts of the region might see a year’s worth of rain or more through the course of the event.
Satellite image acquired at 09:15 UTC on March 24, 2026. Credit: EUMETSAT/Meteosat-9, RAMMB/CIRA, The Watchers
A large-scale synoptic weather system is forecast to affect a wide area of the Middle East between March 25 and 31, bringing prolonged rainfall and increasing flood risk across Iraq, western Iran, and parts of the Arabian Peninsula.
Numerical weather prediction models, including ECMWF and GFS, indicate a broad precipitation corridor extending from the eastern Mediterranean through Syria and Iraq into western Iran, with additional impacts reaching Kuwait, eastern Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and northern Oman.
Model guidance shows cumulative rainfall totals exceeding 100 mm (3.9 inches) across large parts of Iraq and western Iran, with localized areas potentially reaching 150–200 mm (5.9–7.9 inches). Some models suggest up to 500 mm (19.7 inches) in some areas — a year’s worth of rain or more — before the event is over.
Lower but still significant totals are indicated across the Gulf region, where rainfall in typically arid environments can rapidly translate into flash flooding, particularly in urban areas and dry riverbeds.
Across the broader region, meteorological signals from multiple models show strong agreement on the development of a slow-moving system associated with an upper-level trough and enhanced moisture transport.
This setup favors repeated rounds of precipitation over the same areas, increasing the likelihood of flash flooding and localized river overflow, particularly in Iraq and western Iran, where the highest rainfall totals are indicated.
Further south across the Arabian Peninsula, conditions may support convective storm development, with potential for strong outflow winds in drier areas capable of generating dust storms — reducing visibility and disrupting ground and air transport, particularly in exposed desert regions.
The event is unfolding at a time when this region is experiencing operational strain due to ongoing conflict, which has affected transport routes, airspace management, and critical infrastructure. Heavy rainfall may complicate emergency response and logistics, particularly where infrastructure has been damaged or where access routes are limited.
Flooding of transport corridors and urban areas could further disrupt mobility and response capacity in affected zones.
Damage to energy infrastructure reported in parts of the region introduces an additional environmental consideration. Oil facility strikes and resulting fires have released airborne pollutants, including soot and hydrocarbon aerosols.
Under rainfall conditions, these particles can be removed from the atmosphere through wet deposition, a process in which precipitation captures suspended material and brings it to the surface. Similar conditions have previously produced reports of contaminated rainfall in affected areas, including in Tehran on March 8, where PH tests showed water has become acidic.
Authorities in the United Arab Emirates report that unstable weather conditions are expected to persist through at least Friday, March 27, with heavy rain of varying intensity affecting Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and the Northern Emirates.
Winds are forecast to reach up to 45 km/h (28 mph), with stronger gusts capable of lifting sand and dust, reducing visibility, and worsening transport hazards. Emergency management authorities state they are monitoring developments and are prepared to activate continuity measures if required.
Rainfall has already been observed in parts of the UAE, while neighboring Oman has reported fatalities after vehicles were caught in floodwaters generated by recent thunderstorms. Civil protection agencies in Oman confirmed rescue operations following flooding in valleys and low-lying areas, indicating that hydrological impacts are already emerging ahead of the main forecast window.
Heavy rainfall events in the United Arab Emirates have previously resulted in widespread disruption, including significant flooding in April 2024 that affected transport networks, residential areas, and airport operations.
While current forecasts indicate a multi-day rainfall event, the extent of impacts will depend on rainfall intensity, duration, and local drainage capacity across affected regions.
I'm a dedicated researcher, journalist, and editor at The Watchers. With over 20 years of experience in the media industry, I specialize in hard science news, focusing on extreme weather, seismic and volcanic activity, space weather, and astronomy, including near-Earth objects and planetary defense strategies. You can reach me at teo /at/ watchers.news.
I do thank you for this weather forecast for Iran and surrounding areas of the Mid-East.
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