Moderate M2.8 solar flare erupted from southeastern limb

moderate-m2-8-solar-flare-erupted-from-southeastern-limb

New active region, AR1865, located on the southeastern limb of the Sun erupted on October 9, 2013 peaking at 01:48 UTC as moderate M2.8 solar flare. Strong Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was generated but it was not Earth directed. This region will become geoeffective in the coming days.

A Type II and IV radio emissions were associated with the event. Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the Sun and are typically associated with strong CMEs and solar radiation storms.

This is the strongest solar flare in nearly 2 months. An impulsive M3.3 solar flare erupted on August 17, 2013.

NOAA SWPC forecasters estimated 10% chance for an M-class solar flare, and 1% chance for an X-class solar flare today.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 869
Issue Time: 2013 Oct 09 0239 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 Oct 09 0145 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 791 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

***

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP4
Serial Number: 426
Issue Time: 2013 Oct 09 0216 UTC

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 Oct 09 0155 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

Sunspots

There are currently 8 numbered active regions on the disk. All of them have either Alpha or Beta magnetic configuration.

1856 – Beta
1857 – Alpha
1860  – Alpha
1861  – Beta
1862  – Beta
1863  – Beta
1864  – Alpha
1865  – Beta

Geomagnetic storm in progress

Meanwhile, geomagnetic activity sparked by incoming plasma cloud from October 7th eruption is still in progress. 

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 480 km/s at 19:43 UTC on October 8th. Total IMF reached 26 nT at 20:52 UTC. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 20:46 UTC. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 806 pfu.

NOAA forecasters suspect that a second CME might arrive on today. They estimate a 65% chance of polar geomagnetic storms during the next 24 hours. High latitude sky watchers should remain alert for auroras. 

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 731
Issue Time: 2013 Oct 09 0815 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2013 Oct 09 0811 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0600-0900 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 – Minor
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents – Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft – Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora – Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Featured image: NASA SDO AIA 304

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One Comment

  1. Recent temperature declines due to solar activity, say experts.

    Since the end of the Dalton-Minimum 190 years ago, never has the sun been so inactive as during the past 7 years

    The sun continues to remain in an unusually weak cycle 24.

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