Tropical wave west of Africa coast could develop into tropical storm

A tropical wave accompanied by a surface low pressure system (Invest 98L) east-southeast of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving north-northwestward and could developed into fourth tropical storm of 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. Thunderstorm activity has increased and became better organized by July 22, 3013. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for development over the next 48 hours, before becoming less conducive later in the week.

 Meteosat-10 satellite image showing western Africa coast and Atlantic Ocean, acquired at 17:15 UTC on July 22, 2013. (Credit: NOAA/METEOSAT)

Derived Total Precipitable Water – North Atlantic – CLICK ON IMAGE TO START AN ANIMATION (Credit: MIMIC-TPW/SSMI/SSMIS/TMI)

Substantial dry air and dust streaming across the eastern Atlantic Ocean from Africa's Sahara Desert could weaken the system. Dust and warm and dry air can reduce system's convection.

Meteosat-9 saharan air layer analysis – July 23, 2013 at 03:00 UTC (Credit: UW/CIMSS/NOAA-HRD)

NOAA/NHC forecasters estimate a medium 40% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves west-northwestward. If the system develops into tropical storm it will be named Dorian. 2013 Atlantic hurricane season had 3 named storms so far – Andrea, Barry and Chantal.

Featured image: Meteosat-10 satellite image showing western Africa coast and Atlantic Ocean, acquired at 17:15 UTC on July 22, 2013. (Credit: NOAA/METEOSAT)