Enhanced Risk issued for large hail and severe wind gusts in parts of north and central Texas
An Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for severe thunderstorms has been issued across parts of west and central Texas for Sunday, May 10, 2026. Supercells capable of producing hailstones larger than 5 cm (2 inches) and wind gusts above 113 km/h (70 mph) are forecast to develop during the afternoon and evening hours. The severe-weather threat extends east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Tex region and parts of the lower Mississippi Valley.
Convective Outlook valid 14:00 EDT on May 10 to 14:00 EDT on May 11, 2026. Credit: NWS/SPC
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms for parts of west-central and north-central Texas for Sunday, May 10, with storms capable of producing hail larger than 5 cm (2 inches) and wind gusts above 113 km/h (70 mph) during the afternoon and evening.
A positively tilted mid-level disturbance will move southeast into the southern Plains, while a cold front pushes southward across west and north Texas towards the Ark-La-Tex region. South of the front, surface dewpoints are forecast to remain between 18 and 21°C (65 and 70°F), supporting moderate destabilization as daytime heating intensifies through the afternoon.
Thunderstorms are forecast to develop near the frontal boundary around midday before expanding into a larger convective complex moving southeastward across north and central Texas later in the day.
The combination of instability and vertical wind shear will support semi-discrete supercells capable of producing large hail of over 5 cm (2 inches) in diameter, particularly over west-central and north-central Texas.
There is a risk of severe wind gusts reaching over 113 km/h (70 mph) as storms organize into larger clusters and move southeastward through the afternoon and evening.
The Enhanced Risk area covers about 79 900 km² (30 845 mi²) and includes an estimated population of 7 080 680 people. Some of the larger population centers within the risk area include Dallas, Fort Worth, Arlington, and Garland, Texas.
Areas farther east across the Ark-La-Tex region and the lower Mississippi Valley may also experience severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and hail.
Across the Southeast, a very moist air mass is expected from the central Gulf Coast states eastward to the Atlantic. Storm development may be more isolated because large-scale storm support will be limited, but boundaries forming inland from the coast during the afternoon could support storms capable of isolated severe wind gusts.
References:
1 Day 2 Convective Outlook – SPC – May 9, 2026
Rishav Kothari is Editor-in-Chief of The Watchers, where he runs the newsroom and covers earthquakes, volcanoes, severe weather and space weather.
Published in the last 24 hours
- Forecasters say this winter’s El Niño could reach historic strength, but the last one that big, nicknamed Godzilla in 2015–16, left Los Angeles with about two-thirds of its normal rain while storms pounded the Pacific Northwest Epicenter
- Winds circling the North Pole have slowed sharply this month, the same kind of disruption that in January 2019 split the polar vortex and sent Chicago to minus 23°F, cold enough that rail crews ran flames along the tracks Epicenter
- In April 2014, golden-winged warblers in the mountains of Tennessee, songbirds weighing about as much as four dimes, fled their breeding grounds a day or two before a tornado outbreak and flew hundreds of miles south, while the scientists tracking them sheltered in a Waffle House Epicenter
- After record Nordic heatwave, Swedish researchers to recreate indoor heat to study older adults Epicenter
