Severe coastal flooding expected as Hurricane “Oscar” approaches Turks and Caicos
Tropical Storm “Oscar” formed at 15:00 UTC on October 19, 2024, as the 15th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season and intensified into a hurricane just 3 hours later. Oscar is expected to produce a dangerous storm surge on the Turks and Caicos Islands beginning this evening (local time). Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the southeastern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands, and eastern Cuba during the next day or so.
Satellite image of Hurricane "Oscar" at 19:30 UTC on October 19, 2024. Credit: NOAA//GOES-East, Zoom Earth, The Watchers
Oscar is anticipated to bring hazardous weather conditions, including hurricane-force winds, to parts of the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and eastern Cuba within the next 24 hours.
In light of the impending threat, a Hurricane Warning has been issued for these areas and residents were advised to take immediate precautions as the storm intensifies.
A significant concern is the potential for a dangerous storm surge, particularly in the Turks and Caicos Islands. The surge is expected to begin this evening (local time), posing a risk of coastal flooding and damage to low-lying areas. Authorities are urging residents in vulnerable regions to remain vigilant and prepare for possible evacuations.
In addition to the strong winds and storm surge, locally heavy rainfall is expected across the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas later today and into the night. These heavy rains could lead to flash flooding in some areas.
The storm’s impact is projected to extend to eastern Cuba by Sunday, with heavy rain expected to spread across the region, increasing the risk of localized flooding there as well.
At 18:00 UTC on October 19, the center of Hurricane “Oscar” was located 260 km (165 miles) east-southeast of the Southeastern Bahamas and 755 km (470 miles) east of Camagüey, Cuba.
The system had maximum sustained winds of 130 km/h (80 mph) and a minimum central pressure of 989 hPa. Oscar is moving toward the west at approximately 19 km/h (12 mph), with this motion expected to gradually slow down and turn to the west-southwest over the next couple of days.
Some additional strengthening is possible today before gradual weakening begins early next week.
Oscar is a small hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 10 km (5 miles) from the center and tropical storm-force winds extending outward up to 75 km (45 miles).
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas. Additionally, a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for these same Cuban provinces, while a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the province of Camaguey.
Hurricane conditions are anticipated to impact the warning area’s coast starting tonight, with tropical storm conditions arriving this afternoon, making outdoor preparations hazardous. Areas under the tropical storm watch could experience these conditions by Sunday.
Rainfall totals of 50 to 100 mm (2 to 4 inches), with isolated areas receiving up to 150 mm (6 inches), are expected across the Turks and Caicos Islands, southeastern Cuba, and the southeastern Bahamas through Tuesday.
A storm surge is forecasted to cause severe coastal flooding in the Turks and Caicos Islands, with water levels projected to rise by 0.6 to 1.2 m (2 to 4 feet). Large, destructive waves will likely accompany the surge near the coastline.
Residents living in the affected region are advised to prepare immediately and keep a close eye on the storm.
Oscar is the 15th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season and the 8th named storm since September 24.
“This sets a new record for the most named storm formations between September 24 and October 19, breaking the previous record of 7 set in 1950,” said CSU meteorologist Dr. Philip Klotzbach.
Oscar is also the 10th hurricane of the 2024 season.
Only 9 other seasons on record, dating back to 1851, have had 10 or more Atlantic hurricanes by October 19, including 1886, 1893, 1916, 1933, 1950, 1995, 2005, 2017, and 2020.
References:
1 Hurricane Oscar Special Advisory Number 2 – NWS/NHC – Issued at 18:00 UTC on October 19, 2024
2 Hurricane Oscar Special Discussion Number 2 – NWS/NHC – Issued at 18:00 UTC on October 19, 2024
I'm a dedicated researcher, journalist, and editor at The Watchers. With over 20 years of experience in the media industry, I specialize in hard science news, focusing on extreme weather, seismic and volcanic activity, space weather, and astronomy, including near-Earth objects and planetary defense strategies. You can reach me at teo /at/ watchers.news.
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