The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has started issuing advisories for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six in the Caribbean Sea. The disturbance is likely to become a tropical storm later today or tonight, August 11, 2021, and be named Fred.
At 15:00 UTC on August 10, the disturbance was centered about 255 km (160 miles) W of Guadeloupe and 350 km (220 miles) ESE of Ponce, Puerto Rico.
The storm had maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h (35 mph), minimum central pressure of 1 012 hPa, and was moving WNW at 30 km/h (18 mph).
On the forecast track, the system is expected to pass near or over the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today and tonight, be near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday, August 11 and be near the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands Thursday, August 12.
Image credit: NOAA/GOES-East, RAMMB/CIRA, TW. Acquired at 17:00 UTC on August 10, 2021
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
- Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques
- U.S. Virgin Islands
- The Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward and on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for
- Saba and St. Eustatius
- Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border
- Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Gonaives
- Turks and Caicos Islands
- Southeastern Bahamas.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. Some weakening is likely while the system interacts with Hispaniola on Wednesday.
Dr. Levi Cowan of Tropical Tidbits shares his analysis of this system:
Featured image: Potential Tropical Cyclone 6 at 17:00 UTC on August 10, 2021. Credit: NOAA/GOES-East, RAMMB/CIRA, TW
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