Erick, the fourth hurricane of the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season, weakened into tropical storm on July 7, 2013. The circulation of Erick remains strong but the cyclone has lost most of its thunderstorm activity. Winds decreased to around 60 mph (95 km/h).
Terra MODIS satellite image of the system taken at 18:05 UTC on July 7, 2013 (Credit: LANCE/MODIS Rapid Response)
According to latest public advisory ( #14A) issued by US National Hurricane Center (NHC) on July 8, 2013 at 00:01 UTC, the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located near latitude 20.4N and longitude 108.4W, about 200 miles (320 km) SSE of the southern tip of Baja California. Erick is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A west- northwestward or northwestward track is expected over the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches).
TS Erick tropical storm force wind speed probabilities map (Credit: NOAA/NHC)
GOES West satellite image of TS Erick on July 8, 2013 at 00:30 UTC (Credit: NOAA/GOES)
The center of Erick should pass near the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula early on July 8, 2013.Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast shows a steady decrease in strength due to cooling waters and entrainment of more stable air. Erick should become a remnant low in 36 to 48 hours when it moves over even cooler waters. As Erick becomes a shallow remnant low, it should take a more westward turn and slow under the influence of a weak eastern Pacific low-level ridge.
TS Erick forecast tracks by NHC, JTWC and UWM (Credit: NOAA/NHC/JTWC/UWM)
Erick is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa, western Durango and the southern Baja California peninsula, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. These rains could cause life- threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Swells generated by Erick are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and the southern part of the Baja California. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
TS Erick TRMM precipitation radar at 07:32 UTC on July 7, 2013 (Credit: NASA/TRMM)
- Storm-Centered Infrared (GOES 15; NOAA/SSD)
- Storm-Centered Infrared (Aviation Color Enhancement) (GOES 15; NOAA/SSD)
- Storm-Centered Water Vapor (GOES 15; NOAA/SSD)
- Storm-Centered Visible (GOES 15; NOAA/SSD)
- Storm-Centered Visible (Colorized) (GOES 15; NOAA/SSD)
- Tropical East Pacific Hurricane Sector Infrared (GOES 15; NOAA)
- Tropical East Pacific Hurricane Sector Water Vapor (GOES 15; NOAA)
- Tropical East Pacific Hurricane Sector Visible (GOES 15; NOAA)
Featured image: Terra MODIS satellite image of the system taken at 18:05 UTC on July 7, 2013 (Credit: LANCE/MODIS Rapid Response)
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