New tropical cyclone forming in Eastern Pacific

new-tropical-cyclone-forming-in-eastern-pacific

Shower activity associated with an area of low pressure centered about 500 miles SSW of Acapulco, Mexico has become better organized during June 28, 2013. Upper-level winds have become favorable for additional development and tropical depression could form during the next 24 hours as the system moves slowly northward to northwestward. US National Hurricane Center (NHC) estimate that this system has a high chance, around 80 %, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. When the system developed into tropical storm, it will be named as Dalila.

Infrared satellite image of tropical cyclone formation taken at 18:00 UTC on June 28, 2013 (Credit: JTWC/SATOPS)

NHC map shows the location of low level pressure area (Credit: NOAA/NHC)

 

 

GOES West and GOES East composite Infrared satellite image taken at 22:45 UTC on June 28, 2013 (Credit: NOAA/GOES)

According to Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), winds in the area are estimated to be 15 to 20 knots. The system is moving west-northwestward at speed of 2 knots. Upper-level analysis indicates good divergence aloft as well as low (5 to 10 knots) vertical wind shear. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1009 mb.

Model guidance intensify system to tropical cyclone and take it in closer to coast of Mexico, then run northwestward parallel to the coast before turning west away from the coast.

Forecast tracks by UWM Spaghetti model and JTWC (Credit: UWM/JTWC)

GOES Northern Hemisphere composite Infrared image taken at 23:00 UTC on June 28, 2013 (Credit: NOAA/GOES)

The intensity of the storm can be accompanied by heavy rain showers, hail, thunderstorms, with strong winds that can cause damage and high waves in coastal areas. Flash floods, mudslides and landslides in mountainous areas are the biggest concern.

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