Active region 1319 contains many individual sunspots. The swarm is growing. Over the weekend, the sunspot group's total area nearly tripled as shown in this movie from the Solar Dynamics Observatory:
As AR1319 has grown, the complexity of its magnetic field has increased as well. The sunspot's magnetic canopy is now unstable and harbors energy for strong M-class solar flares. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of such an eruption during the next 24 hours. (SpaceWeather)
A new Sunspot is now rotating into view on the eastern limb and is currently producing C-Class flares. This region is probably the first of several that will rotate into view in the northern hemisphere. At the same time a plage region in the northeast quadrant is now forming some spots.Sunspot 1319 remains a large sunspot cluster, but managed only mid level C-Class flares on Sunday. The largest of these flares was a C6.3 at 15:14 UTC. There will remain the chance for an M-Class event.
Several regions will begin to rotate onto the western limb and out of direct earth view on Monday. Sunspots 1312, 1313, 1318, 1320 and 1322 will all transit onto the limb by Tuesday. It appears that Sunspot 1318 has grown new spots and 1322 is growing as well. (SolarHam)
Solar Flare Risk
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