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The large sunspot cluster 1319 harboring energy for solar flares

the-large-sunspot-cluster-1319-harboring-energy-for-solar-flares

Active region 1319 contains many individual sunspots. The swarm is growing. Over the weekend, the sunspot group's total area nearly tripled as shown in this movie from the Solar Dynamics Observatory:

As AR1319 has grown, the complexity of its magnetic field has increased as well. The sunspot's magnetic canopy is now unstable and harbors energy for strong M-class solar flares. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of such an eruption during the next 24 hours. (SpaceWeather)


A new Sunspot is now rotating into view on the eastern limb and is currently producing C-Class flares. This region is probably the first of several that will rotate into view in the northern hemisphere. At the same time a plage region in the northeast quadrant is now forming some spots.Sunspot 1319 remains a large sunspot cluster, but managed only mid level C-Class flares on Sunday. The largest of these flares was a C6.3 at 15:14 UTC. There will remain the chance for an M-Class event.

Several regions will begin to rotate onto the western limb and out of direct earth view on Monday. Sunspots 1312, 1313, 1318, 1320 and 1322 will all transit onto the limb by Tuesday. It appears that Sunspot 1318 has grown new spots and 1322 is growing as well. (SolarHam)

 

Solar Flare Risk

M-Class: 40%

X-Class: 01%

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4 Comments

  1. How your help seems and what is it about? I am waiting your help.Please answer me about it as soon as You can.
    I think I sent my message to You but without any answer.
    I am waiting.
    REGARDS, Nikola

  2. The sunspots-solar flare
    I am interesting in for this phenomena on the Sun, and I desire communicate to you,these phenomena have one’s own causesand sources that the science didn’t resolve nowadays.
    I have any mathematical proofs for it as a cycle of 11,2 years for sanspots cycles.For instance:This down is my comment fr NASA and it is valid for You also.

    SOLVING THE MYSTERY OF THE SPOTLESS SUN

    I saw and read this article, and nothing new in disclosure the causes of sunspots’appearances on the Sun and of the reconnecting magnetic poles, e.t.c.
    I think, the science didn’t discover, to nowaday ,the causes of these phenomena on the Sun. Produced evidences don’t explain the causes of phenomena,but only give casual effects on the Sun, with which can’t determine anything in future.
    I realy have mathematical conclusive evidence for majority of these phenomena.
    I wrote to NASA about this problem, several times, bu your experts don’t wish to accept and listen “low level”
    I don’t speak enough well English, and if you wish , I can write in Serbian. It will reinforce the exchange necessary data to resolve numerous till now unsolved questions in according with Sun’s phenomena.
    Glance at my several cycles which can be the causes numerous appearances :
    -The shortest relevant cycle of 1,597402597 years has an intensity 683,009 units.
    -The most essential of all is one of 11,18181818 years with intensity of 3832,372 uits, which is connected with period of 123 years (your diagram,too ) and relation :
    11,18181818×11=123 years ,or
    -cycle of 17,57142857 years –relation:
    17,57142857×7=123 years
    Cycle of 13630,63636363=11,18181818×1219, e.t.c.
    There are yet plenty of cycles as : 1947,233766 years and cycle of 22 years (reconnecting magnetic Sun’s poles)
    All of these ones change during of times, and with strong software it will get enormous spectrum of solutions.
    And for the case of above quoted , please ,answer me on my e- mail, if you have interest for a collaboration.
    I have and others works as , for instance : formulae for calculating Earth’s eccentricity without astronomical data: please solve it.

    - eccentricity for planets : ln-natural log.
    I am waiting the answer and thank very much in advance.
    REGARDS,
    Milovic Nikola, dipl.ing. energ.

    1. Nikola;
      I think I can help. I’m an electronics engineer, and know a community of millions (including many scientists employed at NASA, Caltech, and JPL) who are VERY much interested in sunspot activity and predictions. Please email me. mailto:ironmanc@yahoo.com

      -Mike Curtis

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