NHC monitoring two tropical waves in the Atlantic basin
A tropical wave over the northeastern Caribbean Sea is producing showers, thunderstorms, and gusty winds across the Windward and Leeward Islands on September 24, 2025. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said the disturbance will spread heavy rainfall and gusty winds into Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands later today and into the Dominican Republic tonight, with conditions becoming more favorable for development later this week near the Bahamas. Another wave, located about 1 125 km (700 miles) east of the Leeward Islands, also has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression in the coming days.
Satellite image showing two tropical waves in the Atlantic basin at 19:40 UTC on September 23, 2025. Credit: NOAA/GOES-East, RAMMB/CIRA, The Watchers
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring two disturbances in the Atlantic basin in addition to Hurricane Gabrielle over the central subtropical Atlantic. One system is affecting the northeastern Caribbean, while another is located farther east over the tropical Atlantic.
The wave designated AL94 is moving across the northeastern Caribbean Sea, where it is producing a broad area of showers, thunderstorms, and gusty winds, affecting much of the Windward and Leeward Islands.
The system is expected to continue moving west-northwestward at 25–30 km/h (15–20 mph), bringing heavy rainfall and gusty winds into Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands during the day and into the Dominican Republic beginning tonight.
Forecasts indicate that the wave will slow down and turn northwestward when it reaches the southwestern Atlantic in about two days. Environmental conditions are then expected to become more conducive for development, and the NHC said a tropical depression could form near the Bahamas later this week.
The probability of formation is 30 percent during the next 48 hours and 80 percent during the next seven days.
The second disturbance, designated AL93, is located about 1 125 km (700 miles) east of the Leeward Islands. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this system are becoming better organized, and conditions are forecast to remain favorable for further development.
The NHC said a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days as the system moves west-northwest to northwestward across the western tropical Atlantic. It is expected to pass well north of the Leeward Islands. The probability of formation is 80 percent during the next 48 hours and 90 percent during the next seven days.
The NHC advised interests in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas to monitor the progress of these systems.
Meanwhile, a Category 3 Hurricane Gabrielle is forecast to approach the Azores late on Thursday, September 25, as a hurricane.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for all of the islands of the Azores, and interests there should closely monitor Gabrielle’s progress as hurricane conditions are possible later this week.
Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda, the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Current forecast track takes Gabrielle over the Azores, while weakening, and then toward Portugal.
References:
1 Tropical Weather Outlook – NWS/NHC – September 24, 2025
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