Tropical Storm Nando (Ragasa) forecast to rapidly intensify east of Luzon, possible super typhoon
PAGASA upgraded Tropical Depression Nando (internationally known as Ragasa) to a tropical storm at 23:00 LT (15:00 UTC) on September 18, 2025. The system will continue to intensify while over the Philippine Sea and may reach typhoon category by Saturday, September 20. Further intensification into super typhoon category while traversing the Extreme Northern Luzon is not ruled out.
Satellite image of Tropical Storm Nando (Tropical depression 24W), as of 17:10 UTC on September 18, 2025. Credit; Himawari-9, RAMMB/CIRA, The Watchers.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) upgraded Tropical Depression Nando to a tropical storm in Tropical Cyclone Bulletin No. 5 issued at 23:00 LT (15:00 UTC) on September 18.
At the time, the Nando’s center was located approximately 1 175 km (730 miles) east of Central Luzon, slowly moving west-northwestward. Maximum sustained winds were estimated at 65 km/h (40 mph) with gusts up to 80 km/h (50 mph).
No Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals (TCWS) have yet been hoisted, but PAGASA noted that Signal No. 1 may be raised over Northern Luzon by September 20.
The agency also warned of heavy rainfall enhanced by the Southwest Monsoon and gusty winds in exposed coastal and upland areas.
JTWC assessed environmental conditions as favorable for intensification, citing sea surface temperatures of 29–30°C (84–85 °F), low vertical wind shear of 19–28 km/h (12–17 mph), and strong equatorward outflow.
Nando is forecast to move west-northwestward to westward over the Philippine Sea within the next 24 hours. A loop pattern is possible before the system turns northwestward to west-northwestward from the evening of September 19 until September 21.
The storm is then expected to track westward toward extreme northern Luzon. On the current forecast path, its center may pass close to or make landfall over the Babuyan Islands between the afternoon of September 22 and the morning of September 23. Nando may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility by the afternoon or evening of September 23.
Intensification is expected while Nando remains over the Philippine Sea, with typhoon strength possible by September 20. Further strengthening to super typhoon intensity while moving across extreme northern Luzon cannot be ruled out.
PAGASA will issue further bulletins as the system approaches the Philippine Area of Responsibility, while JTWC maintains forecasts indicating potential for significant strengthening.
References:
1 Tropical Cyclone Bulletin No. 5 – Tropical Storm “Nando” (Ragasa) – PAGASA – September 18, 2025
2 Prognostic Reasoning for Tropical Depression 24W (Ragasa) Warning #1 – JTWC – September 18, 2025
I am an Assistant Editor and Severe Weather & Science Journalist at The Watchers, specializing in real-time severe weather coverage, geophysical event reporting, and research-driven scientific analysis. You can reach me at rishav(at)watchers(.)news.
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