Hurricane Lorena forms in the eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Warning issued for Baja California
Hurricane Lorena formed in the eastern Pacific on September 3, 2025, as the 7th hurricane of the 2025 eastern Pacific hurricane season. Tropical storm warnings have been issued for parts of Baja California peninsula where the storm is expected to make a landfall later in the week.
Tropical Storm Lorena at 23:50 UTC on September 2, 2025. Credit: NOAA/GOES-East, RAMMB/CIRA, The Watchers
Tropical Storm Lorena strengthened into a hurricane on September 3, as it moved northwestward off the southern Baja California Peninsula. The system is expected to intensify further through tonight before weakening later this week.
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the west coast of Baja California Sur from Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro.
Meanwhile, a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Cabo San Lazaro northward to Punta Abreojos, and from Cabo San Lucas northward to Santa Fe.
As of 09:00 UTC (02:00 MST) on September 3, the center of Hurricane Lorena was located about 195 km (120 miles) south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, and 445 km (275 miles) south-southeast of Cabo San Lázaro, Mexico.
Lorena is moving northwest at 22 km/h (14 mph). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 hPa, and maximum sustained winds have increased to 120 km/h (75 mph) with higher gusts, making Lorena a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson scale.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 20 km (10 miles) from the center, while tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 95 km (60 miles).
Satellite imagery and Cabo San Lucas radar show a developing eyewall with improving banding features. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB supported an upgrade to hurricane status with initial intensity set at 120 km/h (75 mph).
Lorena is forecast to continue northwestward along the west coast of Baja California Sur today before slowing and turning northward by late September 4. The system is expected to approach the Baja California Sur coast on the night of September 4 into September 5.
There is uncertainty in track guidance. The GFS keeps Lorena stronger and deeper, steering it northeast into northwestern Mexico in 36–48 hours while the ECMWF and Canadian models show a weaker system shearing apart west of the peninsula. NHC’s forecast leans toward the GFS solution, bringing Lorena across Baja California Sur in 60–72 hours, but a track remaining offshore remains possible.
Rapid intensification is possible through tonight, with peak winds near 155 km/h (100 mph) forecast in the next 24 hours. Cooler waters and increasing southwesterly shear should then cause weakening. Lorena is expected to drop back to tropical storm strength by September 5, with dissipation over northwestern Mexico or west of the Baja coast within 120 hours.
Baja California Sur and southeastern Baja California could receive 125–250 mm (5–10 inches) of rain, with isolated amounts up to 380 mm (15 inches) through September 5. Southwestern Sonora may also experience heavy rainfall. These conditions bring a high risk of flash flooding and landslides, especially in mountainous areas.
Moisture from Lorena is also forecast to bring 25–75 mm (1–3 inches) of rain, with isolated totals up to 100 mm (4 inches), to Sinaloa, Sonora, and the U.S. state of Arizona by September 5, increasing the potential for isolated to scattered flash flooding.
Swells generated by Lorena are expected to affect the west coast of Baja California Sur starting September 3, with dangerous surf and rip current conditions anticipated through September 5.
Rishav Kothari is Editor-in-Chief of The Watchers, where he runs the newsroom and covers earthquakes, volcanoes, severe weather and space weather.
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