Cyclone Dikeledi forms, forecast to rapidly intensify before landfall in Madagascar
Cyclone Dikeledi formed in the South-West Indian Ocean on Thursday, January 9, 2025, and is expected to rapidly intensify before making landfall in northern Madagascar on Saturday, January 11.
Satellite image of Cyclone Dikeledi at 19:00 UTC on January 9, 2025. Image credit: Eumesat/Meteosat-IODC , Zoom Earth, The Watchers
- Cyclone Dikeledi, the fourth named storm of the 2024-25 South-West Indian Ocean Cyclone Season formed on Thursday, January 9, 2025.
- The system is expected to make landfall on Saturday, January 11, between Sambava and Antsiranana in northern Madagascar, posing a significant threat with strong winds, heavy rainfall, and dangerous sea conditions.
- The cyclone, currently classified as a moderate tropical storm with an estimated minimum central pressure of 996 hPa, sustained winds of 85 km/h (53 mph), and gusts up to 120 km/h (75 mph), is positioned northeast of La Réunion and east of Mayotte, moving westward at 30 km/h (19 mph).
Cyclone Dikledi — the fourth named storm of the 2024-25 South-West Indian Ocean Cyclone Season, formed off the coast of La Reunion on Thursday, January 9.
According to data provided by Meteo France, the storm was located approximately 900 km (559 miles) northeast of La Réunion and 1 660 km (1 031 miles) east of Mayotte at 18:00 UTC today.
The system had a minimum central pressure of 996 hPa and was moving westward at 30 km/h (19 mph). Maximum sustained winds (averaged over 10 minutes) were measured at 85 km/h (53 mph), with estimated gusts of 120 km/h (75 mph) at sea.
The system is currently compact and is experiencing favorable conditions for rapid intensification over the next two days. It was generating dangerous sea conditions over Saint Brandon on Thursday night and is expected to move toward Tromelin by Friday.
The cyclone is expected to make landfall over northern Madagascar on the east coast of Antsiranana Province, between Sambava and Antsiranana, on Saturday, January 11, posing a serious threat to the region.
Strong winds are expected on Saturday afternoon in the impact zone, with the potential for very destructive winds during the evening. Heavy rainfall is expected in Antsiranana Province and northern Toamasina Province, along with dangerous sea conditions in the impact zone.
After moving across northern Madagascar, the system is expected to re-emerge on the western side into the Mozambique Channel, though it will likely lose some intensity.
Although the forecast for Sunday, January 12, remains uncertain, the system is expected to pass near the northwestern coast of Madagascar. “It is still too early to specify the impacts on the northwest coast of Madagascar,” Meteo France stated.
Rainy and windy conditions are expected for Mayotte on Sunday, January 12, though the forecast for impacts on the region remains uncertain.
The system was named Dikeledi by Meteo France.
Reference:
1 Daily Cyclone Activity Bulletin – Meteo France – Issued at 18:31 UTC on January 9, 2025
I am an Assistant Editor and Severe Weather & Science Journalist at The Watchers, specializing in real-time severe weather coverage, geophysical event reporting, and research-driven scientific analysis. You can reach me at rishav(at)watchers(.)news.
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