Strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall forecasted for Mississippi Valley, Ozark Plateau, and southern Plains

convective outlook us june 3 2024

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains on Monday, June 3, 2024, while heavy to excessive rainfall may bring flooding to parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks, the National Weather Service (NWS) warns.

“Pockets of severe thunderstorms capable of producing heavy to excessive rainfall may develop over parts of the Southern Plains into the Mississippi Valley on Monday, June 3,” NWS forecaster Kebede noted.

Sight Risks of Excessive Rainfall and Severe Thunderstorms are in effect over those areas, where a swath of damaging wind gusts are possible.

Today’s severe weather threat extends over 1 600 km (1 000 miles) from southern Texas to the Midwest.

“The areas threatened by severe weather Monday will unfortunately once again include some regions that have been hard hit over the past several weeks,” said Dan Pydynowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist. “A large portion of central and North Texas extending northeastward to cities such as Kansas City and St. Louis could all experience rounds of severe thunderstorms Monday into Monday night.”

Interstates 35, 40, 44, and 70, along with other major routes across the Plains, Midwest, and Mississippi River Valley, may face disruptions from thunderstorms bringing large hail, heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and strong wind gusts.

The threat of severe thunderstorms will shift eastward and northward on Tuesday, affecting a large part of the central United States from Minnesota and Wisconsin to Oklahoma and Arkansas. The collision of cooler air from Canada with warm, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico will enhance atmospheric energy, increasing the severity of thunderstorms.

Meanwhile, shortwave energy spinning through the Northwest will support showers and thunderstorm activity across the region today. Rainfall rates over the favored terrain of the Cascades and Northern Rockies will be high enough to warrant an Excessive Rainfall threat.

Thus, a Slight Risk (at least 15%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding is in effect for portions of the Northern Rockies, while a Marginal Risk (at least 5%) area is in place over the Cascades, Olympics, and Seattle Metro area.

Additionally, an upper ridge is expected to develop over the West early to mid-week. High temperatures will gradually climb over 37 C (100 F) by Wednesday, June 5 and Thursday, June 6 with many records potentially being tied or broken on those days.

Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect for the Central Valley region of California while Excessive Heat Watches are in effect for parts of the Desert Southwest.

Extreme HeatRisk is probable to continue for much of southern Texas through Wednesday. This level of heat risk means that there will likely be little to no overnight relief for those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration.


1 Short Range Forecast Discussion – NWS/WPC – Issued at 02:26 EDT on June 3, 2024

2 Severe thunderstorms to target the Plains, powerful cold front to shift risk east into midweek – AccuWeather – June 2, 2024


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