A moderately strong M1.5 solar flare erupted from AR 2887 at 01:45 UTC on November 1, 2021. The event started at 00:57 and ended at 02:10 UTC.
It was associated with a Type II Radio Emission at 01:29 UTC with an estimated velocity of 626 km/s. Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the Sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection (CME) is associated with a flare event.
In addition, a Type IV Radio Emission was registered at 01:30 UTC. Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.
CME generated by this event looks to be heading mostly southwest — not directed toward our planet.
This is the same region that produced X1.0 solar flare on October 28.1
While G3 – Strong geomagnetic storm watch was issued for October 302, only a weak interplanetary (IP) shock was observed beginning at 09:14 UTC on October 31. Following the IP shock, total field strength increased from 4 nT to 13 nT, the Bz component reached -11 nT and solar wind speed values increased from around 378 km/s to near 465 km/s.
By 15:00 on October 31, total field had calmed to between 5-8 nT.
The geomagnetic field responded with an isolated active period late on October 30 followed by unsettled to G1 -Minor storming on October 31.
Coinciding with the X1 flare was a greater than 10 MeV and 100 MeV proton event. The greater than 10 MeV event began at 17:40 UTC on October 28, reached a peak flux of 29 pfu (S1 – Minor) at 02:50 UTC on October 29 and ended at 16:10 UTC on October 30.
S1 thresholds were crossed once again beginning at 21:00 UTC on October 30, reaching a peak flux of 11pfu at 21:05 UTC on October 30 and ending at 21:30 UTC on October 30 due to an enhancement from the October 26 CME.
The greater than 100 MeV proton event began at 16:35 UTC on October 28, reached a peak flux of 7.3 pfu at 18:15 UTC and ended at 04:40 UTC on October 30. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued to decline towards background levels through November 1.
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for further M-class flare activity (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) from November 1 to 8 as Regions 2887 and 2891 transit across the visible disk.
Very low to low levels are expected from November 9 to 16. Low levels with a chance for M-class flares are likely again from November 16 to 27 Nov as Regions 2887 and 2891 return to the visible disk on November 16 and 21, respectively.3
1 Major, long-duration X1.0 solar flare erupts from AR 2887, Earth-directed CME produced – The Watchers
2 G3 – Strong geomagnetic storm watch in effect for October 30 after major X1.0 solar flare – The Watchers
3 Weekly Highlights and Forecasts Issued: 2021 Nov 01 0509 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Featured image credit: NASA SDO/AIA 304
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