Geoeffective Active Region 1944 (beta-gamma-delta) erupted with major solar flare measuring X1.2 at 18:32 UTC today. The event started at 18:04, peaked at 18:32 and ended at 18:58 UTC. A Type II radio emission was registered at 18:17 UTC with estimated velocity of 1064 km/s. Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.
This huge active region is almost perfectly positioned for geoeffective events.
A bright coronal mass ejection (CME) was generated – high latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.
At 10:03 UTC today this same region erupted with strong M7.2 solar flare.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on January 8, active to major storm levels on January 9 and unsettled to minor storm levels on January 10.
Forecasters estimate 80% chance for M-class, 50% chance for X-class and 99% chance for proton event in next 3 days (January 8 – 10).
Update: January 8, 2014 (13:30 UTC):
Once enough imagery was available, in-depth analysis of the coronal mass ejection associated with the X1.2 flare was accomplished. The current Enlil model of this CME indicates a possible arrival at Earth early on January 9.
"The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on January 8 into the first part of January 9.
Minor (G1-minor) to severe (G3-strong) storm levels are expected early on on January 9 in response to the arrival of the CME from January 7. January 10 is likely to start out at major (G2-moderate) to severe (G3-strong) storm levels, decreasing to minor storm levels (G1-Minor) by midday before returning to unsettled conditions as CME effects begin to subside." (SWPC) [end of update]
Video courtesy: NASA SDO
Space Weather Message Code: ALTPC0
Serial Number: 41
Issue Time: 2014 Jan 07 2041 UTC
ALERT: Proton Event 100MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1pfu
Begin Time: 2014 Jan 07 2015 UTC
Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact.
Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 604
Issue Time: 2014 Jan 07 2031 UTC
SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2014 Jan 07 1806 UTC
Maximum Time: 2014 Jan 07 1813 UTC
End Time: 2014 Jan 07 1856 UTC
Duration: 50 minutes
Peak Flux: 8300 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 204 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.
Space Weather Message Code: SUMX01
Serial Number: 96
Issue Time: 2014 Jan 07 2022 UTC
SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2014 Jan 07 1804 UTC
Maximum Time: 2014 Jan 07 1832 UTC
End Time: 2014 Jan 07 1858 UTC
X-ray Class: X1.2
Optical Class: 2n
NOAA Scale: R3 – Strong
Comment: Optical Class and Location are preliminary.
Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio – Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.
Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 899
Issue Time: 2014 Jan 07 1925 UTC
ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2014 Jan 07 1817 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1064 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.
|AR 1944 (beta-gamma-delta) – January 7, 2014||Sunspots count: 112. Source: SDO / HMI|
Meanwhile, CME generated on January 4 was registered by ACE spacecraft at 15:15 UTC. Glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field did not immediately spark geomagnetic storm but storm conditions could still develop.
Image source: NOAA / SWPC
There are currently 9 active sunspot groups on Earth side of the Sun.
Image credit: NASA SDO / AIA 1600
Sunspots on January 7, 2014. Image credit: NASA SDO / HMI
1937 S13W85 195 160 9 DAI 21 BG
1938 S14W73 183 10 2 HRX 1 A
1942 N10W20 130 20 2 CRO 3 B
1943 S11W07 117 10 1 AXX 1 A
1944 S09E11 99 1415 18 FKC 112 BGD
1945 N11W39 149 10 1 AXX 1 A
1946 N09E07 103 140 8 DAC 11 BG
1947 N11W70 180 30 4 CRO 4 B
1948 N06E67 43 60 2 HSX 1 A
Featured image: NASA SDO AIA 304
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