Active Region 1897 emerged yesterday on eastern limb of the Sun and erupted today with long duration M2.4 solar flare at 11:18 UTC. No Earth-directed CME was observed but this region already produced multiple C-class flares today.
The region was numbered overnight and appears to be fairly large although exact size and magnetic complexity is difficult to determine given its proximity to the limb.
NOAA SWPC forecasters estimate 60% chance of M-class, and 30% chance of X-class solar flare today.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the Earth side of the Sun. Region 1890 (S12W41, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) remained relatively stable during the past 24 hours but did produce a C7 at 00:48 UTC today.
We are awaiting the return of old Region 1875 which was moderately productive last rotation and appeared to be very active during its transit along the backside of the disk. It will rotate into view within next 24 – 48 hours.
Sunspots on November 11, 2013. Image credit: NASA SDO HMI
1890 – Beta-Gamma-Delta
1893 – Beta
1895 – Beta
1896 – Alpha
Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) with a chance for X-class (R3-Strong) flares for the next three days (November 11 -13) with Region 1890 or old Region 1875 being the likely source.
Featured image: NASA SDO AIA 304
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