Tropical Cyclone Eighteen (18S), located approximately 120 nm southeast of Cocos Island, Australia, has tracked south-southeastward at 06 knots over the past six hours. Animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts an exposed but well-defined low-level circulation center with deep convection sheared about 45 nm west of the center due to strong easterly vertical wind shear.
TC 18S has continued to struggle due to the poor upper-level environment, however, an AMSU image indicates better organized shallow banding wrapping into a well-defined low-level circulation center. An ASCAT image showed 40 to 45 knot winds over the north quadrant and surface observations from Cocos Island have remained steady at 30 to 35 knots sustained with gusts to 40 to 50 knots.
TC 18S is forecast to track eastward under the steering influence of the near- equatorial ridge. TC 18S is expected to slowly intensify through the next 120 hours due to persistent moderate to strong vertical wind shear. Due to the marginal environment, there is uncertainty in the extended intensity forecast, which may be significantly lower than the 60 knots currently forecast to occur near the next 120 hours.
- Storm-Centered Infrared (MTSAT; NOAA/SSD)
- Storm-Centered Infrared (Aviation Color Enhancement) (MTSAT; NOAA/SSD)
- Storm-Centered Water Vapor (MTSAT; NOAA/SSD)
- Storm-Centered Visible (MTSAT; NOAA/SSD)
- Storm-Centered Visible (Colorized) (MTSAT; NOAA/SSD)
- MTSAT Infrared (MTSAT; CIMSS)
- MTSAT Infrared (Color Background) (MTSAT; CIMSS)
- MTSAT Infrared (NHC Color Enhancement (MTSAT; CIMSS)
- MTSAT Water Vapor (MTSAT; CIMSS)
- MTSAT Water Vapor (Color Background) (MTSAT; CIMSS)
- Meteosat 7 Infrared (Meteosat 7; CIMSS)
- Meteosat 7 Infrared (Color Background) (Meteosat 7; CIMSS)
- Meteosat 7 Infrared (NHC Color Enhancement) (Meteosat 7; CIMSS)
- Meteosat 7 Water Vapor (Meteosat 7; CIMSS)
- Meteosat 7 Water Vapor (Color Background) (Meteosat 7; CIMSS)
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