Flood Watches are in effect across parts of Arizona, New Mexico, Utah and Colorado as successive Pacific moisture surges raise the flash-flood threat through early November 2, 2026. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed the Four Corners under a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall for November 1, when it expects a high-impact heavy rainfall event over saturated ground.
New Mexico requested a federal emergency declaration on October 24, 2026, after record San Juan River flooding prompted hundreds of water rescues and affected communities around Farmington and Bloomfield. The request covered four counties and five Tribal nations, seeking assistance for debris removal and emergency protective measures. The San Juan River at Farmington reached 4.3 m (14.1 feet) on October 23, breaking its previous record of 3.75 m (12.3 feet) set in September 1909. The gauge subsequently stopped operating, leaving the final crest unconfirmed. Hundreds of water rescues were reported between Farmington and Bloomfield as flooding affected nearby communities.
Heavy rain is forecast across the Four Corners region through 05:00 PT (12:00 UTC) on September 30, with 50–100 mm (2–4 inches) expected across much of eastern Arizona, western New Mexico, and the San Juan Mountains of southwestern Colorado. Moderate Risk excessive-rainfall outlooks, level 3 of 4, cover much of Arizona and New Mexico and parts of southern Utah and southern Colorado, corresponding to a ≥40% probability of flash flooding.
Flood Watches cover much of New Mexico on September 22, 2026, as a multi-day surge of tropical and monsoon moisture is forecast to produce repeated rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms through at least September 24. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) placed portions of southern New Mexico under a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall, level 3 of 4, for the first 24-hour period, with the Moderate Risk shifting into parts of eastern New Mexico during the following period. Flash flooding, river flooding and debris flows near recent burn scars are possible.
Another round of heavy showers and thunderstorms was forecast across parts of New Mexico, Utah and Colorado on September 17, 2026, prompting Flood Watches for areas vulnerable to rapid runoff and flash flooding. A moisture-rich disturbance was then expected to move northeast into South Dakota, where the National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC) forecast 51–102 mm (2–4 inches) of rain with locally higher totals.
Two adults and a juvenile drowned after being swept away by floodwaters near Newcomb, New Mexico, early on September 16, 2026. The deaths occurred amid a Navajo Nation-wide state of emergency for severe monsoon storms, flash flooding and storm-related damage to roads and infrastructure.
Prolonged drought has been affecting the Rio Grande basin for several years. A Satellite loop released on September 15, 2026, showed the declining water levels in the Elephant Butte Reservoir and the smaller Caballo Reservoir to its south over the last 15 years. NASA had earlier reported that the reservoir stood at 1.4% of capacity on July 27, its lowest level since 1971.
Repeated rounds of severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop across parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley through Thursday, June 4, bringing the potential for large hail, damaging winds, isolated tornadoes, and localized flooding. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) placed parts of the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota under a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms, while excessive-rainfall outlooks from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) target portions of the eastern Dakotas, west Texas, and New Mexico.
Wildfires burning across the Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico have scorched more than 18 000 ha (44 500 acres) since May 14, prompting evacuations near Amarillo and along the New Mexico–Texas border
The Storm Prediction Center issued an Extremely Critical Fire Weather Area for portions of eastern New Mexico into the far western Texas Panhandle on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Red Flag Warnings cover much of the southern High Plains as southwest winds of 40-55 km/h (25-35 mph), localized gusts of 80-95 km/h (50-60 mph), and very low relative humidity create conditions where any new fire could spread rapidly.
