Tropical Storm Karina forecast to reach major hurricane strength, bringing hazardous swells to Mexico as Lowell strengthens

Tropical Storm Karina remained well offshore southwestern Mexico with maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h (50 mph) at 08:00 PDT (15:00 UTC) on August 28, 2026. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast Karina to reach major-hurricane strength at 205 km/h (125 mph) by 12:00 UTC on August 31. Swells generated by the storm were expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along portions of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula during the weekend of August 29–30.

At 15:00 UTC, NHC located Karina approximately 1 205 km (750 miles) south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. The cyclone was moving northwest at 17 km/h (10 mph), with an estimated minimum central pressure of 999 hPa.

Tropical-storm-force winds extended as far as 370 km (230 miles) from the center, mainly across the northeastern and southeastern quadrants. No coastal watches or warnings were in effect.

NHC forecast Karina to become a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h (75 mph) by 12:00 UTC on August 29. The cyclone was forecast to reach 165 km/h (105 mph) on August 30 and peak at 205 km/h (125 mph) at 12:00 UTC on August 31.

Karina was then forecast to weaken to 185 km/h (115 mph) by September 1 and 150 km/h (90 mph) by September 2.

Tropical Storm Karina is the 11^th named storm of the 2026 eastern Pacific hurricane season. The NHC named and began issuing advisories on Karina at 14:00 MST (21:00 UTC) on August 27 after a low-pressure area designated Invest EP93 developed a closed circulation and organized bands of thunderstorms. Satellite wind data showed maximum winds between 65 and 75 km/h (40 and 45 mph), and NHC designated the system Tropical Storm Karina with maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h (45 mph).

At formation, Karina was centered approximately 1 330 km (825 miles) south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. It was moving west-northwest at 20 km/h (13 mph), with a minimum central pressure of 1 001 hPa.

Karina strengthened to 85 km/h (50 mph) during the following six hours as convection became better organized around its circulation. Its tropical-storm-force wind field also expanded from a maximum radius of 335 km (205 miles) at 03:00 UTC to 370 km (230 miles) by 09:00 UTC on August 28.

Environmental conditions were conducive to intensification, but Karina’s inner-core structure remained broad and vertically misaligned at 15:00 UTC. Low vertical wind shear was expected to allow the core to organize, although the timing remained uncertain.

Intensity guidance had decreased somewhat from the previous forecast cycle, but the official NHC forecast remained near the higher end of the available guidance.

Conventional satellite imagery made Karina’s center difficult to identify during the morning, with the estimated center near a new burst of thunderstorms on the northwestern side of the cloud envelope. Microwave satellite data showed a tilted structure, with the low-level center southwest of the mid-level core.

Satellite-based Dvorak intensity estimates had changed little, supporting NHC’s decision to maintain maximum sustained winds at 85 km/h (50 mph).

A mid-level ridge over the southwestern United States was forecast to build westward, turning Karina from northwest toward the west-northwest and west during August 29–30. A turn toward the northwest was possible early the following week as a mid-latitude trough weakened the ridge.

Tropical Storm Lowell was named by the NHC at the same time as Karina, becoming the 12^th named storm of the season. At 05:00 HST (15:00 UTC) on August 28, it was centered approximately 2 510 km (1 560 miles) east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Lowell had maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h (45 mph), was moving north-northwest at 7 km/h (5 mph), and had a minimum central pressure of 1 003 hPa.

Tropical-storm-force winds extended as far as 130 km (80 miles) from Lowell’s center. No coastal watches or warnings were in effect, and NHC listed no hazards affecting land.

NHC forecast Lowell to turn west and strengthen, reaching hurricane intensity with winds of approximately 120 km/h (75 mph) by 00:00 UTC on August 31.

Northeasterly to easterly vertical wind shear had displaced Lowell’s deep convection southwest of its low-level center. NHC expected warm waters, abundant mid-level moisture, and lighter wind shear to support strengthening during the following several days, although track uncertainty increased beyond 48–72 hours because of interactions among several Pacific weather systems.

References:

¹ Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 4 – NOAA/NHC – August 28, 2026

² Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 4 – NOAA/NHC – August 28, 2026

³ Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory Number 4 – NOAA/NHC – August 28, 2026