Enhanced Risk of severe storms with supercells capable of strong tornadoes across southern Illinois and Indiana
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts are forecast across parts of the Midwest and lower Ohio Valley on February 19, 2026, with an Enhanced Risk in place for southern Illinois and southern Indiana. The Storm Prediction Center warns that a few tornadoes may be strong, particularly near and south of the I-70 corridor during the afternoon and early evening.
February 19, 2026 Convective Outlook. Credit: NWS/SPC
Storm development is expected by late morning to midday across eastern Missouri, with maturing storms becoming increasingly surface-based near and just north of the I-70 corridor in southern Illinois by early afternoon.
A focused corridor of higher tornado potential may evolve near I-70 southward toward I-64 across southern Illinois and southern Indiana during the afternoon and early to mid-evening.
If semi-discrete storms develop southward into the warm sector, relatively long-lived supercells are possible. SPC notes that all severe hazards are possible, including tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds, with a few tornadoes potentially reaching strong intensity (EF2+).
Into the mid to late evening hours, limited early-season moisture and boundary layer stabilization are forecast to reduce the potential for surface-based storms and overall severe intensity.
The Enhanced Risk area covers 37 900 km² (14 630 mi²) and includes an estimated population of 1 077 715 people. Larger population centers include Bloomington, IN, Terre Haute, IN, Columbus, IN, Charleston, IL, and Seymour, IN.
The Slight Risk area covers 155 500 km² (60 045 mi²), with an estimated population of 10 471 393 and larger population centers including Indianapolis, IN, Cincinnati, OH, Louisville, KY, Lexington-Fayette, KY, and Dayton, OH.
The Significant Severe area — 10% or greater probability of EF2–EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles (40 km) of a point — covers 37 435 km² (14 460 mi²) and includes an estimated population of 1 054 205 people. Larger population centers listed include Bloomington, IN, Columbus, IN, Charleston, IL, Seymour, IN, and Vincennes, IN.
The 5% tornado probability area spans 100 233 km² (38 921 mi²) and includes an estimated population of 7 692 265 people. Larger cities listed include Indianapolis, IN, Cincinnati, OH, Louisville, KY, Evansville, IN, and Decatur, IL.
The broader synoptic system will also produce additional hazards across the Lower 48.
The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) states that a dynamic winter storm will bring snow and mixed precipitation from the Northern and Central Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast, while heavy low-elevation rain and significant Sierra snowfall are expected in California.
However, the primary severe thunderstorm threat on February 19 remains focused across the Midwest and lower Ohio Valley.
High temperatures across the Midwest are forecast to reach 16–21°C (60s–70s°F), which is approximately 11–17°C (20–30°F) above average for mid-February. The above-normal temperatures will support boundary layer destabilization ahead of the advancing cold front.
References:
1 Day 1 Convective Outlook – NWS/SPC -Issued at 07:00 CST on February 19, 2026
2 Short Range Forecast Discussion – NWS/WPC – Issued at 03:17 EST on February 19, 2026
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