Istanbul earthquake raises concern over heightened seismic risk

A M6.2 earthquake struck the Sea of Marmara near Istanbul at 09:49 UTC on April 23, injuring at least 359 people and causing structural damage across multiple provinces. The quake disrupted mobile networks and damaged several buildings in Istanbul, including collapses in Fatih, Bakırköy, and Büyükçekmece, and triggered renewed concerns about the region’s seismic vulnerability.

Seismologist Prof. Dr. Naci Görür stated that the April 23 earthquake was not the anticipated major event along the Marmara segment of the North Anatolian Fault. He explained that ongoing seismic activity on the Kumburgaz fault is increasing stress accumulation, raising the likelihood of a significant rupture. According to Görür, a future earthquake in the region could exceed M7.0.

Görür has consistently warned of Istanbul’s vulnerability, citing its population of 16–20 million and aging infrastructure. He stated that a major earthquake could cause widespread building collapses, obstruct narrow streets, and overwhelm emergency response efforts. In 2023, he reported a 64% probability of an M7+ earthquake occurring in the Marmara region within 30 years.

Görür criticized Istanbul’s disaster preparedness, pointing to inadequate hospital and firefighting capacity, as well as the consequences of unplanned urban development, which has limited the availability of safe gathering areas.

He called for coordinated action by government institutions, municipalities, and citizens, arguing that urban transformation and new construction alone are insufficient.

The seismologist called for coordinated efforts among government bodies, municipalities, and citizens to enhance earthquake preparedness, stating that urban transformation and construction alone are insufficient.

Görür is leading Turkish geologist and seismologist born in Elazığ in 1947. He earned his doctorate from Imperial College London and later served as a professor at Istanbul Technical University, where he also held the position of dean of the Faculty of Mining.

Görür has conducted extensive research on the tectonic structure of the region, with a focus on the North Anatolian Fault and the Sea of Marmara.

His assessments are based on decades of academic and field research, including direct observations made during submersible dives along submerged fault segments.

References:

¹ April 23 Istanbul earthquake raises alarm for ‘even stronger’ event, says seismologist Gorur – Turkiye Today – April 23, 2025

² Strong M6.2 earthquake hits Istanbul, Turkey, injuring over 350 people – The Watchers – April 23, 2025

Reet Kaur

I’m a science journalist and researcher at The Watchers, contributing to the Epicenter edition, where I cover peer-reviewed scientific research and emerging discoveries across Earth and space sciences. With a background in astronomy and a passion for environmental science, I’ve worked in shark and coral conservation in Fiji, conducting reef and shark-behavior research, contributing to mangrove restoration, and earning PADI Open Water and Coral Reef Certifications. I bring a blend of scientific rigor and storytelling to illuminate the discoveries shaping our planet and beyond.

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