Major X1.2 solar flare erupts from NE limb – first X-class flare of 2025

There were no radio signatures that would suggest a coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced. Even if it was, the location of this region close to the NE limb does not favor Earth-directed CMEs.

This, however, will change in the days ahead as the region rotates toward the center of the solar disk.

AR 3947 produced the majority of the flares during the past 24 hours, including an X1.2 flare at 11:39 UTC, the largest of the period, as well as a C6.6 at 12:19 UTC on January 2, a C3.5 at 01:24 UTC on January 3, and a C4.9 flare at 08:23 UTC.

No associated CMEs were observed from any of these events, SWPC forecasters said.

Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over parts of South America, the South Atlantic Ocean, and Africa.

Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate to high levels, with a 55 – 60% chance of M-class flares through January 5 and 10 – 15% of X-class flares.

There is a chance for the greater than 2 MeV electron flux to reach high levels on January 3 with post-CME influences. Moderate levels are expected thereafter. A slight chance for an S1 – Minor solar radiation storm event will persist through January 5 given the current total disk potential and as AR 3939 approaches the western limb.

Unsettled to active geomagnetic field levels are expected today due to waning CME effects. G1 – Minor geomagnetic storming is likely on January 4 and 5, first due to possible glancing CME effects from an event that left the Sun on January 1 and then to recurrent, positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects.

References:

¹ Forecast Discussion – NOAA/SWPC – Issued at 12:30 UTC on January 3, 2025